Created Mon 7th Apr 2008 11:03pm PDT by 
orlin
All questions » Science » Scientific Discoveries » orlin 
Will the 'Higgs boson' be discovered in the next year and by whom?
Current forecast: No (83% chance
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Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is No with a probability of 83% (unchanged in last 1 day)
The "father" of an elusive subatomic particle said Monday (Apr 7th 2008) he is almost sure it will be discovered in the next year in a race between powerful research equipment in the United States and Europe.
British physicist Peter Higgs, who more than 40 years ago postulated the existence of the particle in the makeup of the atom, said his visit to a new accelerator in Geneva over the weekend encouraged him that the so-called Higgs boson will soon be seen.
The $2 billion Large Hadron Collider, under construction since 2003, is expected to start operating by June at the European Laboratory for Particle Physics, which is known as CERN.
But Higgs said the particle may already have been created at the rival Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory outside Chicago, where the Tevatron is currently the world's most powerful particle accelerator.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jHNcslqYIgVd6MCa-D0Yz-X8UyLAD8VT9DL01
British physicist Peter Higgs, who more than 40 years ago postulated the existence of the particle in the makeup of the atom, said his visit to a new accelerator in Geneva over the weekend encouraged him that the so-called Higgs boson will soon be seen.
The $2 billion Large Hadron Collider, under construction since 2003, is expected to start operating by June at the European Laboratory for Particle Physics, which is known as CERN.
But Higgs said the particle may already have been created at the rival Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory outside Chicago, where the Tevatron is currently the world's most powerful particle accelerator.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jHNcslqYIgVd6MCa-D0Yz-X8UyLAD8VT9DL01
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
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Yes, by LHC |
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Yes, by Tevatron |
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No |
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Other will happen |
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Activity: H$52,497
Question suspends in 12 weeks
Suspend date: Wed 8th Apr 12:59am PDT (12 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes, by LHC: 35%, Yes, by Tevatron: 35%, No: 20%, Other will happen: 10%
Action history:
Created Mon 7th Apr 2008 11:03pm PDT by orlin
orlin 
tisha![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
Settlement requested Wed 24th Sep 2008 2:44am PDT by 
rogerkni
: See my comment #7. I suggest that persons who have voted for the two 1% possibilities have their bets voided, and that the question be settled as NO. There's no longer any betting interest in it--the result is a foregone conclusion.
rogerkni: See my comment #7. I suggest that persons who have voted for the two 1% possibilities have their bets voided, and that the question be settled as NO. There's no longer any betting interest in it--the result is a foregone conclusion.
Settlement requested Wed 24th Sep 2008 3:33am PDT by rogerkni: PS: The bettors who are voided or who lose could be told that they will be compensated if somehow their bets turn out to have been winners before the settlement date. Their bets are so small now that this wouldn't be any major undertaking to do. Their astronomically small concerns shouldn't prevent Hubdub from "clearing the decks" of this relic.
rogerkni: PS: The bettors who are voided or who lose could be told that they will be compensated if somehow their bets turn out to have been winners before the settlement date. Their bets are so small now that this wouldn't be any major undertaking to do. Their astronomically small concerns shouldn't prevent Hubdub from "clearing the decks" of this relic.
Suspend date: Wed 8th Apr 12:59am PDT (12 weeks to go)
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (248)
248 predictions
capecodviking
predicted No (H$3 at 83%)
predicted Yes, by Tevatron (H$20 at 3%)
arachne929
predicted No (H$100 at 84%)
predicted Yes, by LHC (H$300 at 13%)
predicted Yes, by LHC (H$5 at 9%)Comments (9)
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score: 10
Guardian Unlimited 2 weeks ago
The cat's cradle c. The basket case d. The bird's nest September Scientists at Cern's Large Hadron Collider in Switzerland, which in September successfully fired its first proton beam around the 17-mile-long track, are hoping to find evidence for which
score: 10
MSNBC 2 weeks ago
The year's top breakthroughs include reprogramming cells for disease studies, starting up the Large Hadron Collider, and reconstructing a woolly mammoth's DNA. Why would anyone want to create diseased cells in the lab? Because that's the best way to
score: 10
TMC Net 3 weeks ago
enormous volume of data resulting from experiments with the GSI's own revolutionary particle accelerator and with the Large Hadron Collider at CERN in Geneva. The goal of the scientific research conducted at the GSI is to understand the structure and
score: 10
score: 10
Guardian Unlimited 3 weeks ago
The accident that shut down the Large Hadron Collider will take many months to fix, but no one said it would be easy Over the past few weeks, images from the underground tunnel that houses the at
Related tags
New in Science » Scientific Discoveries
but this article was informative at a layman's level.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7512586.stm
Hawking bets CERN mega-machine won't find 'God's Particle' (Update)
http://www.physorg.com/news140161003.html
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/science/article4813036.ece
From The [London] Times September 24, 2008
Large Hadron Collider must hibernate after wrong sort of big bang
Mark Henderson, Science Editor
On Friday the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) created the wrong sort of big bang — a fault so serious that CERN, the European Organisation for Nuclear Research, announced last night that the particle accelerator would have to be shut down until next spring for repairs. ........ It will take at least three to four weeks to warm the affected sector and then to open the damaged magnets for inspection, and then another month to re-chill them to their operating temperature. Even then, engineers will not be able to switch the LHC back on. The accelerator was always scheduled to be turned off for winter maintenance in December, and CERN officials confirmed last night that this was “obligatory” and would not be postponed.
No more beams of protons will be travelling around the collider’s 17-mile (27km) ring until early spring, and it will then be several weeks before it can start smashing them together to re-create the conditions of the big bang. Operations are likely to restart in late March or early April.
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