Created Mon 28th Sep 8:56pm PST by

cookietime Level 15, Seer (H$292,486)

Will New Zealand qualify for the 2010 FIFA World Cup?

Settled as YES!!

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/newsid=1133338.html#kiwis+qualify+south+africa

Background:

Background: New Zealand's 'All Whites' football team last had a crack at glory in the 1982 World Cup. Since then, a pesky regulation of having to beat Australia has kept them from getting their hands anywhere near the silverware. A rule change this year means thay now have to beat Bahrain to qualify, and they seem to much prefer their chances of doing that.

Its a two-leg process, the first game is away, on October 10, with a home leg to follow on November 14. I'll update in the comments how the first leg went and set cutoff for just before the second game.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/football/2913585/All-Whites-stars-back-for-Bahrain

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

YES!!

94%

Noooooooooo...

Settled as YES!! on Sat 14th Nov 6:57am PST

Activity: H$32,090
Predictions: 53
Comments: 12

Suspend date: Sat 14th Nov 6am PST
Settlement date: Sat 14th Nov 6:57am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 14th Nov 6am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: YES!!: 40%, Noooooooooo...: 60%

Action history:

Created Mon 28th Sep 8:56pm PST by

cookietime Level 15, Seer (H$292,486)

Changed Question text Thu 12th Nov 6:28am PST by

mrperfkt [Admin]

: ... ~~Can~~Will New Zealand qualify for the

Changed Suspend date Thu 12th Nov 6:28am PST by

mrperfkt [Admin]

: was: "2009-11-12 23:59:00"

Changed Suspend date Thu 12th Nov 6:29am PST by

mrperfkt [Admin]

: was: "2009-11-14 13:00:00"

Settlement requested Sat 14th Nov 1:58am PST by

pitchedoutsideleg Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,578,948)

: Yes
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/newsid=1133338.html#kiwis+qualify+south+africa

Suspended Sat 14th Nov 6am PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Sat 14th Nov 6am PST by

oocares Level 13, Psychic (H$56,011)

: New Zealand have reached the World Cup finals for the second time in their history with victory over Bahrain in their qualifying play-off second leg.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/internationals/8360167.stm
Settlement Requested

Settled as 'YES!!' Sat 14th Nov 6:57am PST by

mrperfkt [Admin]

: http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/newsid=1133338.html#kiwis+qualify+south+africa

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Predictions (53)

1 week ago

point0507 Level 12, Guru (H$49,958)

predicted YES!! (H$1,000 at 89%)

1 week ago

angelovaloppi Level 7, Pro (H$4,072)

predicted Noooooooooo... (H$20 at 11%)

1 week ago

andys727 Level 7, Pro (H$3,895)

predicted YES!! (H$20 at 89%)

1 week ago

chrishill Level 12, Guru (H$25,531)

predicted YES!! (H$5,000 at 81%)

1 week ago

pippi1500 Level 11, Legend (H$21,036)

predicted YES!! (H$150 at 46%)

Comments (12)

cookietime Level 15, Seer (H$292,486)

I couldn't find any professional odds, so hopefully i'm not too far out.

The reasoning i used was that New Zealand: not very good at footy, Bahrain: I've never heard of their football team, but they knocked Saudi Arabia out so they must be useful.

posted 7 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

hehe, to win is at 1000:1 to 1500:1 right now.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/world-cup/win-market

posted 7 weeks ago

cookietime Level 15, Seer (H$292,486)

Ah yes, but at least Bahrain is below us on that list!!

posted 7 weeks ago

cookietime Level 15, Seer (H$292,486)

0-0 draw in Bahrain overnight, which means if NZ win the return home leg they/we go through. If its a goal scoring draw Bahrain go thru on the away goal rule and I have no idea wot happens if its another nil all draw....

posted 5 weeks ago

pitchedoutsideleg Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,578,948)

... extra time, then penalties if still 0-0

posted 4 weeks ago

cookietime Level 15, Seer (H$292,486)

The deciding game is coming up this weekend, it should be a great event - the stadium is sold out which is unheard of in NZ for football, our team has no injury problems and the media is building up some hype!! I have a good feeling about the game, we could be on our way to the finals!!

posted 1 week ago

pitchedoutsideleg Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,578,948)

I'm still working on the premise that Bahrain has the better team and their superiority will ultimately win out. I watched Bahrain outplay Australia at home in the qualifiers - they were very unlucky to lose. The first leg 0-0 result was a good one for NZ, but any goal for Bahrain will make it hard for the kiwis.

posted 1 week ago

cookietime Level 15, Seer (H$292,486)

...have you factored into your thinking that kiwi teams tend to lose when they should win and win when they should lose? That's why we tend to win the Rugby League world cup, but not the standard rugby one :D

posted 1 week ago

pitchedoutsideleg Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,578,948)

Good point. The bookies still favour Bahrain, but not by that much - in fact reasonably similar to the current odds here. The odds for a New Zealand win, loss & draw are all about the same - but a draw probably puts Bahrain through.

posted 1 week ago

oocares Level 13, Psychic (H$56,011)

New Zealand have reached the World Cup finals for the second time in their history with victory over Bahrain in their qualifying play-off second leg.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/internationals/8360167.stm
Settlement Requested

posted 1 week ago

cookietime Level 15, Seer (H$292,486)

Yuss!!

posted 6 days ago

kruijs [Power User]

Juhu!

:-D

posted 6 days ago