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Will the theory of a "God Particle" be confirmed by scientific testing by the suspend date of this question?

Current forecast: 22% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 22% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7607531.stm

Will the "God Particle" theory of British physicist Peter Higgs be confirmed by the end of May 2009 (the suspend date of this question)?

This question will be settled as a yes if the existance of the Higgs Boson is confirmed by the suspend date


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
22%
No
78%
Activity: H$94,018
Question suspends in 20 weeks

Suspend date: Mon 1st Jun 12:59am PDT (20 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Tue 8th Apr 2008 10:29am PDT by duckie
Clarified Tue 8th Apr 2008 12:11pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: Although this market talks about the Higgs boson discovery on which there is an existing question, the other question asks 'who' will discover the particle, the timeframe is different and the outcomes are different. I think there is enough difference to have both questions running.
Edited Tue 8th Apr 2008 12:11pm PDT by tisha[Admin]
Edited Tue 8th Apr 2008 1:01pm PDT by tisha[Admin]

Suspend date: Mon 1st Jun 12:59am PDT (20 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (184)

184 predictions

3 days ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$1,000 at 77%)
7 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$4,000 at 77%)
8 weeks ago
bernardo predicted No (H$100 at 72%)
8 weeks ago
silvermchic predicted No (H$100 at 72%)
8 weeks ago
m_sarki predicted No (H$240 at 71%)
more

Comments (10)

  1 duckie
admin: will you please change the suspend date to the last day in May 2009. Thank you.
posted 39 weeks ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
Although this market talks about the Higgs boson discovery on which there is an existing question, the other question asks 'who' will discover the particle, the timeframe is different and the outcomes are different. I think there is enough difference to have both questions running.
posted 39 weeks ago
  3 myunion
currently its a 44% chance the "God Particle" will be confirmed, but the 'Higgs boson' is at (yes for by LHC 26% and 27% think Yes, by Tevatron) 53% seems in my reconing that these numbers should be the same (if everybody that voted, voted that is on both questions) or there might be some people riding the fence here.
posted 39 weeks ago
  4 markov
This is a great question.
posted 39 weeks ago
  5 duckie
Thanks!
posted 39 weeks ago
  6 duckie
Thanks!
posted 39 weeks ago
  7 tisha[Admin]
Stephen Hawking has a measly $100 on 'no' for the LHC!

Hawking bets CERN mega-machine won't find 'God's Particle' (Update)
http://www.physorg.com/news140161003.html
posted 17 weeks ago
  8 duckie
he is a crackpot anyway, what does he know?
posted 16 weeks ago
...Advanced astro-physics
posted 16 weeks ago

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