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Created Tue 8th Apr 2008 9:29am PST by duckie

Will the theory of a "God Particle" be confirmed by scientific testing by the suspend date of this question?

Settled as No

The God Particle theory has not yet been confirmed (indeed, the LHC is yet to be restarted and no progress from the other institutions either).

Background:

Background: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7607531.stm

Will the "God Particle" theory of British physicist Peter Higgs be confirmed by the end of May 2009 (the suspend date of this question)?

This question will be settled as a yes if the existance of the Higgs Boson is confirmed by the suspend date

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
0%
No
100%
Settled as No on Mon 1st Jun 2009 2:53pm PST

Suspend date: Sun 31st May 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 1st Jun 2009 2:53pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st May 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Tue 8th Apr 2008 9:29am PST by duckie
Clarified Tue 8th Apr 2008 11:11am PST by tisha[Admin]: Although this market talks about the Higgs boson discovery on which there is an existing question, the other question asks 'who' will discover the particle, the timeframe is different and the outcomes are different. I think there is enough difference to have both questions running.
Edited Tue 8th Apr 2008 11:11am PST by tisha[Admin]
Edited Tue 8th Apr 2008 12:01pm PST by tisha[Admin]
Suspended Sun 31st May 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 1st Jun 2009 5:29am PST by drzinternet: Settles NO. The theory hasn't been confirmed yet.
Settled as 'No' Mon 1st Jun 2009 2:53pm PST by tisha[Admin]: The God Particle theory has not yet been confirmed (indeed, the LHC is yet to be restarted and no progress from the other institutions either).

Suspend date: Sun 31st May 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 1st Jun 2009 2:53pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st May 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (325)

42 weeks ago
paddy112 predicted No (H$100 at 99%)
44 weeks ago
swordsiddha predicted No (H$50 at 98%)
45 weeks ago
chowmaw predicted No (H$100 at 97%)
46 weeks ago
cookietime predicted No (H$5,000 at 96%)
47 weeks ago
athex predicted No (H$200 at 95%)

Comments (10)

  1 duckie
admin: will you please change the suspend date to the last day in May 2009. Thank you.
posted 1 year ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
Although this market talks about the Higgs boson discovery on which there is an existing question, the other question asks 'who' will discover the particle, the timeframe is different and the outcomes are different. I think there is enough difference to have both questions running.
posted 1 year ago
  3 myunion
currently its a 44% chance the "God Particle" will be confirmed, but the 'Higgs boson' is at (yes for by LHC 26% and 27% think Yes, by Tevatron) 53% seems in my reconing that these numbers should be the same (if everybody that voted, voted that is on both questions) or there might be some people riding the fence here.
posted 1 year ago
  4 markov
This is a great question.
posted 1 year ago
  5 duckie
Thanks!
posted 1 year ago
  6 duckie
Thanks!
posted 1 year ago
  7 tisha[Admin]
Stephen Hawking has a measly $100 on 'no' for the LHC!

Hawking bets CERN mega-machine won't find 'God's Particle' (Update)
http://www.physorg.com/news140161003.html
posted 1 year ago
  8 duckie
he is a crackpot anyway, what does he know?
posted 1 year ago
  9 101airborne
...Advanced astro-physics
posted 1 year ago
  10 101airborne
http://jupiterscientific.org/sciinfo/higgs.html
posted 1 year ago

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