Will Sarah Palin be the GOP candidate for President in 2012?

Plain enough indeed, VnH, although I didn't think you'd run with odds THAT good for her to actually take it. Good thing there's that 15% swing factor so destry doesn't void it. Of course, he still could, saying this isn't 'newsworthy' and all that jazz....

So now....might I assume you will be taking the long shot here and betting Yes on your little filly?

This market is fine. This question will probably make a lot of users money who buy the unpopular position and are able to buy and sell as the market swings.

hold yer horses C2R, like I said, I'll plunk a big wager as soon as my rq'd 6 hrs are up, on my little filly.

This is only the "republican" candidate - not the president. 15% seems ok. Politico lists her as number 3 behind Romney and Huckabee and without some fresh candidates her chances are ok if she is not preferring spending her money instead of being bothered by the media for a full year. ;-)

vh - Suspension date one year prior to 2012 election

so many will be tied up for a year?

@ dieseldog

No, not a year... Q doesn't ask if SP will be President, only if she'll be the Rep. candidate, which will be known prior to the general election, how much prior? Don't know. It would be interesting if it came down to a convention vote, but highly unlikely.

vh - one year prior to the election would be november 2, 2011..correct? i'm not complaining or critizing, just trying to figure how long money will be tied up. as you say nobody knows today who or when the rep nominee will be selected. if its like last years dem race, money will be tied up for awhile.

DD,

You are correct, suspension is one year prior to the general election, 11/2/11, and yes, the $ would be tied up for a while if you wanted to play on this market.

As a believer in the Walter Karp theory of political oligarchy, it seems likely to me that the Republicans will select a 'loser' candidate in 2012 against the likely incumbent - and they don't come more 'loser' than sexy Sarah. Bless. You can imagine the 'attack' commercials now... the 'little woman' standing up to The () Man.

I have this vision of a chase through the narrow twisty alleys from the woman's point of view, seemingly hunted, with only glimpses of the protagonists, emerging into a public square with the woman swinging round and bringing up her hand which of course has a cross in it to ward off the 'boogie man', with a campaign slogan appearing out her hand at an angle : "Sarah Palin: Vote For God's Sake"...