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Will the UK call for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty before the end of 2010?

Background: As of 4 October 2009 only Ireland, Poland and Czech Republic have not yet ratified the Lisbon Treaty. Following the Ireland positive vote in the referendum, ratification in Ireland and Poland will be a fact in the following few weeks. Yet in Czech Republic on 29 September 2009 a group of Czech senators lodged a fresh complain against the Lisbon Treaty with the Constitution court. According to Czech Constitution, the treaty cannot be ratified, until a ruling of the Constitutional Court is delivered. It is not known how long it will take the court to give its verdict. Analysts have stated the case could take up to six months to be resolved. In which case it could move close to the general election in the UK, which polls show the Conservatives are on course to win. The Conservatives have said they will put the Lisbon Treaty to a referendum if it has not been ratified by all members at their time of election.
After Ireland said "Yes" to Lisbon Treaty, there is strong debate in the UK among Conservatives to hold a referendum, with 75% of Torries voters want it according to opinion polls. Also senior figures on the eurosceptic wing of the party, led by London mayor Boris Johnson, demanded that the Conservative leader (and the most likely future UK Prime Minister) David Cameron call a referendum early in his first term in government, even if the treaty has come into force. Cameron has promised to hold a vote only if it has not become law by the time he enters No 10.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/oct/04/conservatives-eu-ireland-lisbon-yes?CMP=AFCYAH
UK already ratified the Lisbon Treaty by parliamentary procedures.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
19%
No
81%
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Wed 15th Dec 2010 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Sat 3rd Oct 7:04pm PST by bgrigore

Suspend date: Wed 15th Dec 2010 11:59pm PST (1 year to go) details

 

Predictions (4)

6 weeks ago
harlech predicted No (H$20 at 81%)
6 weeks ago
oocares predicted No (H$1,000 at 81%)
6 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted No (H$500 at 80%)

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