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Which film opening in October 2009 will win the box office for its first week of wide release?

Settled as Couples Retreat

"This Is It"'s underwhelming performance has allowed the stinker Couples Retreat to walk away with October's prize.

"Couples Retreat" -- $45.4M
"This Is It" -- $39.6M
"Wild Things" -- $39.5M
"Zombieland" -- $32.8M
"Paranormal Activity" -- $20.2M
"Saw" -- $17.3M

Background:

Background: This month sees a fair number of movies that are widely predicted to earn from $70 million to $100 million domestically in the first month of wide release. The question of this market is which one will have the best first seven days (one week) at the domestic box office. (Because one of the films is opening on a Wednesday, using the one-week numbers puts the films on a more even playing field than using the weekend numbers.)

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Zombieland
0%
Couples Retreat
2%
Where the Wild Things Are
2%
Saw VI
0%
Michael Jackson's This Is It
95%
Any film not listed
1%
Settled as Couples Retreat on Wed 4th Nov 2009 12:56pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 27th Oct 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 4th Nov 2009 12:56pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 27th Oct 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Zombieland: 3%, Couples Retreat: 20%, Where the Wild Things Are: 27%, Saw VI: 20%, Michael Jackson's This Is It: 27%, Any film not listed: 3%

Action history:

Created Sun 4th Oct 2009 8:30pm PST by mvguy
Suspended Tue 27th Oct 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 4th Nov 2009 12:52pm PST by mvguy: Sadly (because I'm losing big bucks), this can be settled.

"Couples Retreat" -- $45.4M
"This Is It" -- $39.6M
"Wild Things" -- $39.5M
"Zombieland" -- $32.8M
"Paranormal Activity" -- $20.2M
"Saw" -- $17.3M

http://www.boxofficemojo.com
Settled as 'Couples Retreat' Wed 4th Nov 2009 12:56pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: "This Is It"'s underwhelming performance has allowed the stinker Couples Retreat to walk away with October's prize.

"Couples Retreat" -- $45.4M
"This Is It" -- $39.6M
"Wild Things" -- $39.5M
"Zombieland" -- $32.8M
"Paranormal Activity" -- $20.2M
"Saw" -- $17.3M

Suspend date: Tue 27th Oct 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 4th Nov 2009 12:56pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 27th Oct 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (48)

20 weeks ago
divakaleigh predicted Any film not listed (H$20 at 1%)
21 weeks ago
chull predicted Michael Jackson's This Is It (H$1,000 at 93%)
21 weeks ago
bad_scribbles predicted Michael Jackson's This Is It (H$200 at 83%)
21 weeks ago
tara19996 predicted Michael Jackson's This Is It (H$50 at 82%)
22 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted Where the Wild Things Are (H$444 at 12%)

Comments (15)

  1 hfl13
Any film not listed - big secret New Moon starts in October ;-)
posted 23 weeks ago
Uh... No, it doesn't. November 20th. Trust me on this one ;)
posted 23 weeks ago
  3 hfl13
I will never try to fool anybody again ....


this week!
posted 22 weeks ago
  4 hfl13
First two weekends:

Zombieland out 24,7m
Couples Retreat 34,3
posted 22 weeks ago
  5 mvguy
And it looks like "Wild Things" will end up with less than the "Couples Retreat" gross, which (if that indeed happens) comes as a bit of a surprise.
posted 21 weeks ago
  6 hfl13
As suspected after three weekends:

Zombieland out 24,7m
Where the wild things are out 32,7m (must be those mising 3D theaters Toy Story occupied too long!)
Couples Retreat 34,3m
posted 21 weeks ago
  7 hfl13
I have 6K on Michael Jackson and just bought a small insurance on Couples Retreat that would gain me far more (at 0% = 2,06% gains 15,8K if). Go Couples Retreat! = Freeze This is It!
posted 21 weeks ago
  8 mvguy
I didn't realize until a few minutes ago that there are no films other than "This Is It" opening in wide release next week. (Although the film is in a genre by itself, so other openings might not affect it much.) I think it may get enough in its first two days to beat "Couples Retreat." Or maybe I'm just believing the hype.
posted 21 weeks ago
  9 hfl13
I am an idiot. I read weekend every time I looked. Sorry for misinforming:

The week values:
Zombieland: $32,801,081 out
Couples Retreat: $45,390,345
Where The Wild Things Are: $39,539,575 out
Saw is looking old and not performing well
This Is It is still the huge favorite because oif Frontloading and the two weeks run (?)
posted 21 weeks ago
  10 hfl13
"This is it" still only has to beat Couples Retreat.
Saw VII won´t see 45m for its total run and the only others contender Paranormal Activity has only $26,922,425 to show for its first week because of Paramounts overly cautious release and reaching only #3 last weekend.

If the derbys prediction of 42,2m for the weekend of this wednesday release gets true than this will be a huge victory for music documentary.
posted 20 weeks ago
  11 hfl13
Looks like I will loose 8 K on This is It and my insurance CR will gain me 15,5 K. Nice
posted 20 weeks ago
  12 mvguy
No so nice for me. I'll lose more than $10K. I really shouldn't have believed the hype.
posted 20 weeks ago
  13 hfl13
Its 34,4m after 5 days.

@mvguy thats the reason why I buy insurances when they are cheap. Thanks to CR and my fast changes in other MJ Qs I will make much more money than with This is It.
posted 19 weeks ago
  14 mvguy
I made money in some other markets related to "This Is It." Overall, I probably about broke even.
posted 19 weeks ago
  15 kruijs[Power User]
I didn't have money in any markets related to "This Is It." Overall, I probably about broke even.
posted 19 weeks ago

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