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What will be the result of the Swiss minaret building ban vote?

Background: The Interior Ministry received the proposal submitted by members of the nationalist Swiss People's Party and the fringe Federal Democratic Union, who say they are acting to fight the political spread of Islam. They argue that the minaret is a symbol of political and religious claim to power rather than a mere religious sign.

Opponents of a construction ban say it would violate religious freedom. More than 310,000 of Switzerland's 7.5 million people are Muslims, according to the Federal Statistical Office.

It's not the first time the People's Party has ignited a provocative campaign. Recently they embarked on an anti-immigrant initiative, complete with posters showing a black sheep being kicked off a Swiss flag and dark hands grabbing at a pile of Swiss passports.

Swiss voters last month, however, overwhelmingly rejected their proposal to make it harder for foreigners to gain citizenship.

Switzerland's unique system of grass roots democracy allows political hard-liners to take the issue further than in other European countries, where constitutional courts or governments have blocked moves against mosques and minarets. Any Swiss citizen who collects 100,000 signatures within 18 months can put a popular initiative to a nationwide vote.

Just over half of Swiss voters—51.3 percent—would weigh in against the anti-minaret initiative if the vote were held now.

The vote on whether the construction of minarets should be banned across the country will be held on November 29.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/switzerland/2273439/Swiss-to-vote-on-minaret-building-ban.html
http://worldradio.ch/wrs/news/wrsnews/anti-minaret-initiative-vote-could-be-close.shtml?16221

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
less than 45% of the votes in favor
54%
45% to less than 50% of the votes in favor
38%
50% to less than 55% of the votes in favor
5%
55% or more of the votes in favor
3%
Question suspends in 1 week

Suspend date: Sat 28th Nov 7:59pm PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: less than 45% of the votes in favor: 3%, 45% to less than 50% of the votes in favor: 66%, 50% to less than 55% of the votes in favor: 28%, 55% or more of the votes in favor: 3%

Action history:

Created Thu 8th Oct 2:13am PST by kruijs[Power User]
Suspended Thu 29th Oct 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Fri 30th Oct 9:11am PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-10-29 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Fri 30th Oct 9:11am PST by sqlman[Admin]: The vote won't be held until November 29, so we're reopening until then.

http://www.parlament.ch/d/wahlen-abstimmungen/volksabstimmungen/volksabstimmungen-2009/abstimmung-2009-11-29/Seiten/default.aspx

Suspend date: Sat 28th Nov 7:59pm PST (1 week to go) details

 

Predictions (98)

1 day ago
bernardo predicted 45% to less than 50% of the votes in favor (H$1,000 at 31%)
1 day ago
joffi predicted less than 45% of the votes in favor (H$50 at 71%)
2 days ago
bernardo predicted less than 45% of the votes in favor (H$500 at 49%)
2 days ago
bernardo predicted 50% to less than 55% of the votes in favor (H$300 at 14%)
2 days ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted 45% to less than 50% of the votes in favor (H$1,000 at 37%)

Comments (4)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
Anti-minaret vote alarms UN rights experts

United Nations human rights experts have raised concerns over the forthcoming anti-minaret vote and controversial poster campaign in Switzerland.

The remarks were made during a grilling of Swiss officials by the Geneva-based UN Human Rights Committee on Tuesday over Switzerland's progress in implementing a UN treaty.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/front/Anti_minaret_vote_alarms_UN_rights_experts.html?siteSect=105&sid=11347842&ty=st
posted 5 weeks ago
  3 hfl13
Why was this suspended a month before the vote? Please reopen !

Today I looked for the results and found the date Nov 29th 2009.

http://www.parlament.ch/d/wahlen-abstimmungen/volksabstimmungen/volksabstimmungen-2009/abstimmung-2009-11-29/Seiten/default.aspx
posted 3 weeks ago
  4 kruijs[Power User]
you're right, my bad, sorry.
posted 3 weeks ago

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