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Who will win the Democratic primary in the Senate special election for Massachusetts?

Background: Four Democrats have entered the race to replace Edward Kennedy: US Representative Michael Capuano, Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley, CityYear and Be the Change founder Alan Khazei, and businessman Stephen Pagliuca.

Early polling puts Coakley and Capuano well ahead of Khazei and Pagliuca, but Khazei has already raised over $1million and Pagliuca has a personal fortune in the hundred of millions of dollars.

The primary will be held on December 8. Who will win?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Michael Capuano
22%
Martha Coakley
70%
Alan Khazei
5%
Stephen Pagliuca
2%
Another candidate
1%
Question suspends in 2 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 8th Dec 8am PST (2 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Michael Capuano: 44%, Martha Coakley: 44%, Alan Khazei: 5%, Stephen Pagliuca: 5%, Another candidate: 2%

Action history:

Created Thu 8th Oct 11:46am PST by mcoen

Suspend date: Tue 8th Dec 8am PST (2 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (13)

5 weeks ago
bigh predicted Another candidate (H$20 at 1%)
6 weeks ago
corbelle predicted Martha Coakley (H$20 at 74%)
6 weeks ago
corbelle predicted Martha Coakley (H$20 at 74%)
6 weeks ago
carnacthemagnificent predicted Alan Khazei (H$250 at 5%)
6 weeks ago
jeopardy predicted Martha Coakley (H$100 at 59%)

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