Created Fri 9th Oct 7:51pm PST by

Will German Chancellor Angela Merkel endorse Tony Blair for EU President?

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Flagged by super user: Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy was appointed first EU President
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/11/19/eu.presidency/index.html?eref=rss_topstories&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_topstories+%28RSS%3A+Top+Stories%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Note: this doesn't settle question but suggests it be suspended

Background:

Background: Tony Blair's future is in Angela Merkel's hands

By convention, although not law, only former heads of government are considered (Blair's team deny they are lobbying). The candidates are not quizzed on what they might do. What matters is what they represent: a big or a small country, right-wing or left. Blair could lose on this Brussels definition of balance, which counts him as coming from the Left, except that's where his biggest opponents are.

He is in the lead, all the same. France backs him probably, Italy certainly, Spain interestingly (his help with ETA terrorism trumps Iraq). Poland probably does, and the Czechs do. Rivals are duller, and less known outside Europe. But there has to be consensus - Iraq, and Britain's distaste for the euro, count against Blair. Small countries can veto names, and support has a price.

Really, however, it comes down to whether Merkel wants to accommodate such a star as the face of Europe. She is busy building her new coalition, but if she backs Blair it will be with little enthusiasm. Is he the best candidate? Yes, unless Europe wants to be unheard beyond its borders. Will he get it? Ask Angela.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26179318-2703,00.html

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

12%

88%

Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Activity: H$55,724
Predictions: 46
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Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 9th Oct 7:52pm PST by

lola

Suspended Fri 20th Nov 3:11am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: Flagged by super user: Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy was appointed first EU President
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/11/19/eu.presidency/index.html?eref=rss_topstories&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_topstories+%28RSS%3A+Top+Stories%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Note: this doesn't settle question but suggests it be suspended

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