Created Fri 9th Oct 7:52pm PST by

How many Hubdubbers will gain 1,000,000 in Q4 2009?

Background: The second quarter we settled the question: can any hubdubber gain the seemingly impossible amount of H$1,000,000 in a single quarter? In Q3, 2009 there was a tight race, but in the end, there were only 3 hubdubbers who made the mark (two others were very close). The fourth quarter is off to an amazing start. We are 1/10th of the way through and 5 players have over 100,000, and are therefore on pace to gain a million in this quarter. Of course, there are 83 days to go and it is very early to make projections. The pace may or may not be sustainable, so it's way too early to tell - but let's try anyway...
The question is: how many (if any) players will gain H$1,000,000 or more in the fourth quarter of 09?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. In case no mainstream source reports Hubdub gains, we will go with the Quarterly Gain Leaderboard as of the last available reading before midnight on December 31st PST: http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders

Forecast history %

Nobody makes a cool million

1-2 quarterly millionaires

12%

3-4 make a million bucks

41%

5-6 hubdubbers manage the feat

37%

7-8 get filthy rich in one quarter

9-10 are set for life

11-12 will retire early

13 or more increase their net worth by a million

Question suspends in 4 weeks

Activity: H$16,067
Predictions: 34
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 11:59am PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Nobody makes a cool million: 6%, 1-2 quarterly millionaires: 10%, 3-4 make a million bucks: 16%, 5-6 hubdubbers manage the feat: 18%, 7-8 get filthy rich in one quarter: 18%, 9-10 are set for life : 16%, 11-12 will retire early: 10%, 13 or more increase their net worth by a million: 6%

Action history:

Created Fri 9th Oct 7:52pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

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Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 11:59am PST (4 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (34)

2 hours ago

hfl13

predicted 1-2 quarterly millionaires (H$333 at 9%)

2 hours ago

hfl13

predicted 5-6 hubdubbers manage the feat (H$333 at 37%)

1 day ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted 3-4 make a million bucks (H$700 at 42%)

1 week ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted 5-6 hubdubbers manage the feat (H$600 at 46%)

1 week ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted 3-4 make a million bucks (H$400 at 34%)

Comments (3)

hfl13

Still optimistic on the number of millionaires - the million is far too easy for you ! ;-)

posted 6 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

We shall see! There is a lot of markets that expire at the end of the year, there will be a lot of flux for sure. You and bg are a quarter of the way there already, I think we need to create a market asking how many will get 2 mil!

posted 5 weeks ago

hfl13

The markets that expire will be a very nice boost the first days of January. I made about 25 K this quarter that were not counted because the quaterly gains was reset a few days late.

posted 3 weeks ago