Created Fri 9th Oct 2009 7:52pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

How many Hubdubbers will gain 1,000,000 in Q4 2009?

Settled as 1-2 quarterly millionaires

there were two
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=1

Background:

Background: The second quarter we settled the question: can any hubdubber gain the seemingly impossible amount of H$1,000,000 in a single quarter? In Q3, 2009 there was a tight race, but in the end, there were only 3 hubdubbers who made the mark (two others were very close). The fourth quarter is off to an amazing start. We are 1/10th of the way through and 5 players have over 100,000, and are therefore on pace to gain a million in this quarter. Of course, there are 83 days to go and it is very early to make projections. The pace may or may not be sustainable, so it's way too early to tell - but let's try anyway...
The question is: how many (if any) players will gain H$1,000,000 or more in the fourth quarter of 09?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. In case no mainstream source reports Hubdub gains, we will go with the Quarterly Gain Leaderboard as of the last available reading before midnight on December 31st PST: http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders

Forecast history %

Nobody makes a cool million

1-2 quarterly millionaires

98%

3-4 make a million bucks

5-6 hubdubbers manage the feat

7-8 get filthy rich in one quarter

9-10 are set for life

11-12 will retire early

13 or more increase their net worth by a million

Settled as 1-2 quarterly millionaires on Fri 1st Jan 2:52am PST

Activity: H$105,769
Predictions: 81
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 2009 11:59am PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 2:52am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 24th Dec 2009 11:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Nobody makes a cool million: 6%, 1-2 quarterly millionaires: 10%, 3-4 make a million bucks: 16%, 5-6 hubdubbers manage the feat: 18%, 7-8 get filthy rich in one quarter: 18%, 9-10 are set for life : 16%, 11-12 will retire early: 10%, 13 or more increase their net worth by a million: 6%

Action history:

Created Fri 9th Oct 2009 7:52pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Suspended Thu 24th Dec 2009 11:59am PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Thu 31st Dec 2009 9:41pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: there were two
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=1

Settled as '1-2 quarterly millionaires' Fri 1st Jan 2:52am PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

: there were two
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=1

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Predictions (81)

12 weeks ago

royaaa1 Level 1, Newbie (H$153)

predicted 1-2 quarterly millionaires (H$467 at 97%)

14 weeks ago

pitchedoutsideleg [Power User]

predicted 3-4 make a million bucks (H$1,000 at 21%)

14 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,712,641)

predicted 1-2 quarterly millionaires (H$5,000 at 76%)

15 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted 3-4 make a million bucks (H$300 at 25%)

16 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted 1-2 quarterly millionaires (H$800 at 46%)

Comments (3)

hfl13

Still optimistic on the number of millionaires - the million is far too easy for you ! ;-)

posted 22 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

We shall see! There is a lot of markets that expire at the end of the year, there will be a lot of flux for sure. You and bg are a quarter of the way there already, I think we need to create a market asking how many will get 2 mil!

posted 22 weeks ago

hfl13

The markets that expire will be a very nice boost the first days of January. I made about 25 K this quarter that were not counted because the quaterly gains was reset a few days late.

posted 20 weeks ago