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How many Hubdubbers will achieve a quarterly gain of 500,000 or more in Q4 2009?

Settled as 10 to 11

there were 10 with gain of >500,000
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=1

Background:

Background: There are a lot of "rich" Hubdubbers, but not everybody is playing or winning. Last quarter, 3 players gained a million H$, 10 made 500k and 16 made H$ 250,000. There should be more this quarter, as there are now more high net worth hubdubbers and we all know that the rich get richer.
The question is: how many will have gained at least 500,000 H$ in the fourth quarter of 09? The market will suspend one week prior.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. In case no mainstream source reports Hubdub gains, we will go with the Quarterly Gain Leaderboard as of the last available reading on Dec 31st, 2009 PST: http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=1

 
Forecast history %
3 or less stuck in neutral
0%
4 to 5
0%
6 to 7
9%
8 to 9
34%
10 to 11
55%
12 to 13
1%
14 to 15
0%
16 to 17
0%
18 or more - HD rocks
0%
Settled as 10 to 11 on Fri 1st Jan 2:52am PST

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 2:52am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 3 or less stuck in neutral: 6%, 4 to 5: 8%, 6 to 7: 12%, 8 to 9: 15%, 10 to 11: 18%, 12 to 13: 15%, 14 to 15: 12%, 16 to 17: 8%, 18 or more - HD rocks: 6%

Action history:

Created Fri 9th Oct 2009 8:22pm PST by tuff_sledding[Power User]
Suspended Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 31st Dec 2009 9:42pm PST by tuff_sledding[Power User]: there were 10 with gain of >500,000
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=1
Settled as '10 to 11' Fri 1st Jan 2:52am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: there were 10 with gain of >500,000
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=1

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 2:52am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (119)

11 weeks ago
mayank predicted 10 to 11 (H$18 at 54%)
11 weeks ago
charlesf predicted 8 to 9 (H$100 at 34%)
11 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 10 to 11 (H$1,000 at 51%)
11 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 10 to 11 (H$800 at 41%)
11 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 10 to 11 (H$500 at 33%)

Comments (1)

  1 hfl13
9
posted 11 weeks ago

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