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How many Hubdubbers will achieve a quarterly gain of 100,000 or more in Q4 2009?

Settled as 36 to 40

36 gained at least 1000,000
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=2

Background:

Background: There are a lot of "rich" Hubdubbers, but not everybody is playing or winning. Last quarter, 16 players gained a quarter of a million and about 34 gained 100,000. There should be more this quarter, as there are now more high net worth hubdubbers and we all know that the rich get richer. Currently, there are already 5 who have gained over 100,000 and 9 who are 50,000 richer since Sept 30th. We are only 10% into the 4th quarter!
The question is: how many will have gained at least 100,000 H$ in the fourth quarter of 09? The market will suspend one week prior.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. In case no mainstream source reports Hubdub gains, we will go with the Quarterly Gain Leaderboard as of the latest available reading on December 31st PST: http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=2

 
Forecast history %
20 or less stuck in neutral
0%
21 to 25
1%
26 to 30
19%
31 to 35
71%
36 to 40
6%
41 to 45
1%
46 to 50
1%
51 to 55
1%
56 or more HD rocks!
0%
Settled as 36 to 40 on Fri 1st Jan 2:51am PST

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 2:51am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 20 or less stuck in neutral: 6%, 21 to 25: 8%, 26 to 30: 12%, 31 to 35: 15%, 36 to 40: 18%, 41 to 45: 15%, 46 to 50: 12%, 51 to 55: 8%, 56 or more HD rocks!: 6%

Action history:

Created Fri 9th Oct 2009 8:38pm PST by tuff_sledding[Power User]
Suspended Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 31st Dec 2009 9:44pm PST by tuff_sledding[Power User]: 36 gained at least 1000,000
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=2
Settled as '36 to 40' Fri 1st Jan 2:51am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: 36 gained at least 1000,000
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=2

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 2:51am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (79)

11 weeks ago
mayank predicted 31 to 35 (H$36 at 71%)
11 weeks ago
charlesf predicted 31 to 35 (H$46 at 67%)
11 weeks ago
charlesf predicted 31 to 35 (H$100 at 67%)
11 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 31 to 35 (H$1,000 at 63%)
11 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 31 to 35 (H$900 at 52%)

Comments (1)

  1 hfl13
30
posted 11 weeks ago

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