How many Hubdubbers will achieve a quarterly gain of 100,000 or more in Q4 2009?
Background: There are a lot of "rich" Hubdubbers, but not everybody is playing or winning. Last quarter, 16 players gained a quarter of a million and about 34 gained 100,000. There should be more this quarter, as there are now more high net worth hubdubbers and we all know that the rich get richer. Currently, there are already 5 who have gained over 100,000 and 9 who are 50,000 richer since Sept 30th. We are only 10% into the 4th quarter!
The question is: how many will have gained at least 100,000 H$ in the fourth quarter of 09? The market will suspend one week prior.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. In case no mainstream source reports Hubdub gains, we will go with the Quarterly Gain Leaderboard as of the latest available reading on December 31st PST: http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=2
How many Hubdubbers will achieve a quarterly gain of 100,000 or more in Q4 2009?
20 or less stuck in neutral
21 to 25
26 to 30
31 to 35
36 to 40
41 to 45
46 to 50
51 to 55
56 or more HD rocks!
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Forecast history %
|
| 20 or less stuck in neutral | |
|
| 21 to 25 | |
|
| 26 to 30 | |
|
| 31 to 35 | |
|
| 36 to 40 | |
|
| 41 to 45 | |
|
| 46 to 50 | |
|
| 51 to 55 | |
|
| 56 or more HD rocks! | |
Settled as 36 to 40 on Fri 1st Jan 2:51am PST
Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 2:51am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods:
20 or less stuck in neutral: 6%, 21 to 25: 8%, 26 to 30: 12%, 31 to 35: 15%, 36 to 40: 18%, 41 to 45: 15%, 46 to 50: 12%, 51 to 55: 8%, 56 or more HD rocks!: 6%
Action history:
Suspended Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 2:51am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details
Predictions (79)
11 weeks ago
mayank
predicted
31 to 35 (H$36 at 71%)
11 weeks ago
charlesf
predicted
31 to 35 (H$46 at 67%)
11 weeks ago
charlesf
predicted
31 to 35 (H$100 at 67%)
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