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How many Hubdubbers will achieve a quarterly gain of 50,000 or more in Q4 2009?

Settled as 56 to 60

59 players gained 50,000
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=3

Background:

Background: There are a lot of "rich" Hubdubbers, but not everybody is playing or winning. Last quarter, 3 players gained H$1,000,000, 16 players gained H$250,000, 34 won 100,000 and about 60 gained H$50,000. There should be more this quarter, as there are now more high net worth hubdubbers and we all know that the rich get richer. Currently, there are already 5 who have gained over H$100,000 and 9 who are H$50,000 richer since Sept 30. We are only 1/10th into the 4th quarter!
The question is: how many will have gained at least H$50,000 in the fourth quarter of 09? The market will suspend one week prior.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. In case no mainstream source reports Hubdub gains, we will go with the Quarterly Gain Leaderboard as of the latest available reading before midnight PST on December 31st: http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=3

 
Forecast history %
40 or less stuck in neutral
0%
41 to 45
1%
46 to 50
1%
51 to 55
2%
56 to 60
52%
61 to 65
43%
66 to 70
1%
71 to 75
1%
76 or more HD rocks!
0%
Settled as 56 to 60 on Fri 1st Jan 2:44am PST

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 2:44am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 40 or less stuck in neutral: 6%, 41 to 45: 8%, 46 to 50: 12%, 51 to 55: 15%, 56 to 60: 18%, 61 to 65: 15%, 66 to 70: 12%, 71 to 75: 8%, 76 or more HD rocks!: 6%

Action history:

Created Fri 9th Oct 2009 8:47pm PST by tuff_sledding[Power User]
Suspended Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 31st Dec 2009 9:45pm PST by tuff_sledding[Power User]: 59 players gained 50,000
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=3
Settled as '56 to 60' Fri 1st Jan 2:44am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: 59 players gained 50,000
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=3

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 2:44am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 24th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (68)

11 weeks ago
mayank predicted 56 to 60 (H$14 at 52%)
11 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 61 to 65 (H$600 at 39%)
11 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 61 to 65 (H$800 at 49%)
12 weeks ago
pitchedoutsideleg[Power User] predicted 61 to 65 (H$1,000 at 39%)
12 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 61 to 65 (H$900 at 24%)

Comments (1)

  1 hfl13
57
posted 11 weeks ago

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