Created Sun 11th Oct 8:30am PST by

How low will the unemployment rate go in 2010?

Background: The unemployment rate is predicted widely to be heading to 10% or more by the end of 2009 or start of 2010. Some think it may hit more than 11%. The economy seems to be stabilizing, but the auto industry and other sectors are still struggling. Instant recovery is not expected and job creation usually lags other signs of recovery. Still, the Dow is nearing 10k and it is widely predicted that the GDP will show a healthy rise in Q3, 09. So, a gradual drop in unemployment rate is a reasonable expectation in 2010 after the expected peak this coming winter. What will be the lowest rate reported in 2010, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics?

Settlement details:As reported by the bureau of labor statistics: http://www.bls.gov/cps/

Forecast history %

8.0% or less

8.1% - 8.5%

8.6% - 9.0%

9.1% - 9.5%

21%

9.6% - 10%

32%

10.1% -10.5%

25%

10.6 % or greater

Question suspends in 51 weeks

Activity: H$18,157
Predictions: 38
Comments: 1

Suspend date: Mon 15th Nov 2010 11:59pm PST (51 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 8.0% or less: 7%, 8.1% - 8.5%: 12%, 8.6% - 9.0%: 20%, 9.1% - 9.5%: 22%, 9.6% - 10% : 20%, 10.1% -10.5% : 12%, 10.6 % or greater : 7%

Action history:

Created Sun 11th Oct 8:30am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

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Suspend date: Mon 15th Nov 2010 11:59pm PST (51 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (38)

2 days ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted 9.6% - 10% (H$500 at 28%)

6 days ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted 9.6% - 10% (H$400 at 26%)

6 days ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted 9.1% - 9.5% (H$300 at 25%)

1 week ago

modigs2000 Level 6, Player (H$2,940)

predicted 10.6 % or greater (H$500 at 4%)

2 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted 9.6% - 10% (H$300 at 27%)

Comments (1)

tuff_sledding [Power User]

not very cheery outlook, v&h, surely things will not get that bad!
Personally, I think we'll peak around 10% sometime this winter, then slowly, ever so slowly, struggle down to somewhere between 9 and 9.5% by the end of 2010. So there, I have gone out on a limb. Let's see how the prediction looks a year from now.....

posted 5 weeks ago