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How many Hubdubbers will achieve a quarterly LOSS of 25,000 or more in Q4 2009?

Background: Gains, gains, gains... That's all we talk about, forgetting that there are some spectacular losers among us. It is time we gave them their due!
Last quarter, there were 9 Hubdubbers who managed to lose over 25,000 H$. This quarter seems to be off to a better start. Currently, there are only 2 who have lost over 20,000, and 5 who are 10,000 in hock, since Sept 30, 2009. For the moment, longtime loss leader perma-bear rogerkni has managed to stay out of the cellar, but give him time..We are not quite two weeks into the 4th quarter, so at the present rate of descent, there should be a good crowd down there in the red zone. Of course, many will recoup their losses! Anything can happen...
The question is: how many will have lost at least 25,000 H$ in the fourth quarter of 09? The market will suspend one week prior. I only have one quarter's track record to go on, so the odds are my best guess. I hope no-one thinks they are wildly unrealistic

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. In case no mainstream source reports Hubdub losses (since they have billions in real losses to report from big banks) we will go with the latest available reading before midnight PST on the Quarterly Gain Leaderboard on Dec 31st: http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders - last page

 
Forecast history %
0 - 2
2%
3 - 4
3%
5 - 6
14%
7 - 8
17%
9 - 10
28%
11 - 12
19%
13 - 14
10%
15 - 16
5%
17 or more are going broke
2%
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 12:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 0 - 2: 6%, 3 - 4: 8%, 5 - 6: 12%, 7 - 8: 15%, 9 - 10: 18%, 11 - 12: 15%, 13 - 14: 12%, 15 - 16: 8%, 17 or more are going broke: 6%

Action history:

Created Mon 12th Oct 3:02am PST by tuff_sledding[Power User]
Changed Question text Tue 13th Oct 3:55am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: ... 25,000 or more in Q3Q4 2009?

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 12:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (29)

1 day ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 13 - 14 (H$100 at 9%)
1 day ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 9 - 10 (H$300 at 27%)
3 days ago
frogchop predicted 11 - 12 (H$250 at 18%)
3 days ago
frogchop predicted 9 - 10 (H$250 at 23%)
1 week ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 15 - 16 (H$100 at 4%)

Comments (1)

oops, forgot to change Q3 to Q4 in the title. It is correct thereafter, I think everybody can figure out what I meant. Sorry, will flag for repairs.
posted 5 weeks ago

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