Created Mon 12th Oct 3:02am PST by

How many Hubdubbers will achieve a quarterly LOSS of 25,000 or more in Q4 2009?

Background: Gains, gains, gains... That's all we talk about, forgetting that there are some spectacular losers among us. It is time we gave them their due!
Last quarter, there were 9 Hubdubbers who managed to lose over 25,000 H$. This quarter seems to be off to a better start. Currently, there are only 2 who have lost over 20,000, and 5 who are 10,000 in hock, since Sept 30, 2009. For the moment, longtime loss leader perma-bear rogerkni has managed to stay out of the cellar, but give him time..We are not quite two weeks into the 4th quarter, so at the present rate of descent, there should be a good crowd down there in the red zone. Of course, many will recoup their losses! Anything can happen...
The question is: how many will have lost at least 25,000 H$ in the fourth quarter of 09? The market will suspend one week prior. I only have one quarter's track record to go on, so the odds are my best guess. I hope no-one thinks they are wildly unrealistic

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. In case no mainstream source reports Hubdub losses (since they have billions in real losses to report from big banks) we will go with the latest available reading before midnight PST on the Quarterly Gain Leaderboard on Dec 31st: http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders - last page

Forecast history %

0 - 2

3 - 4

5 - 6

14%

7 - 8

17%

9 - 10

28%

11 - 12

19%

13 - 14

10%

15 - 16

17 or more are going broke

Question suspends in 4 weeks

Activity: H$6,559
Predictions: 29
Comments: 1

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 12:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 0 - 2: 6%, 3 - 4: 8%, 5 - 6: 12%, 7 - 8: 15%, 9 - 10: 18%, 11 - 12: 15%, 13 - 14: 12%, 15 - 16: 8%, 17 or more are going broke: 6%

Action history:

Created Mon 12th Oct 3:02am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Changed Question text Tue 13th Oct 3:55am PST by