How many Hubdubbers will achieve a quarterly LOSS of 100,000 or more in Q4 2009?
Background: Gains, gains, gains... That's all we talk about, forgetting that there are some spectacular losers among us. It is time we gave them their due!
Last month, we saw only one successful contestant in the Greatest Looser game, but there were times when there were as many as 5 strong contenders. Currently, there are about 7 players who are on or close to the pace that would get them the honor. For the moment, longtime loss leader rogerkni has been overshadowed by others, but give him time, he is sure to rise to the occasion and reclaim the bottom spot.
The question is: how many will have lost at least 100,000 H$ in the fourth quarter of 09? The market will suspend one week prior. I only have one quarter's track record to go by, so the odds are my best guess, based on the last quarter. I hope no-one thinks they are wildly unrealistic
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. In case no mainstream source reports Hubdub losses, since they have billions in losses to report from big banks, we will go with the last available reading before midnight on the Quarterly Gain Leaderboard as of December 31st: http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders - last page
How many Hubdubbers will achieve a quarterly LOSS of 100,000 or more in Q4 2009?
Nobody loses 100k
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 or more are going broke
Forecast history %
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| Nobody loses 100k | | |
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| 1 | | |
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| 2 | | |
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| 3 | | |
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| 4 | | |
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| 5 | | |
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| 6 | | |
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| 7 | | |
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| 8 or more are going broke | | |
Question suspends in 4 weeks
Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 12:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
Nobody loses 100k: 18%, 1: 20%, 2: 18%, 3: 15%, 4: 10%, 5: 8%, 6: 6%, 7: 3%, 8 or more are going broke: 2%
Action history:
Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 12:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) details 
Predictions (45)
3 days ago
frogchop
predicted
2 (H$250 at 28%)
3 days ago
frogchop predicted
3 (H$250 at 23%)
Comments (3)
tuff_sledding![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
Comments: 3
Get widget!
Looks like a three horse race, but a lot of questions revolve around the end of the year, so anything can happen...
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