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Will Marian Lupu become the next president of Moldova in 2009?

Background: The 43-year-old leader of the Democratic Party and former Communist speaker, Marian Lupu, was registered as a candidate for the president of the Republic of Moldova. He was nominated to the post by the ruling Alliance for European Integration.
On 7 October, parliament set the date of the first attempt to elect the president for 23 October. Under the Moldovan legislation, the presidential election should be held within two months after former President Vladimir Voronin resigned, or on 11 November.
To be elected president, a candidate needs the support of 61 out of 101 MPs. The Alliance for European Integration is short of eight votes to elect the president on its own. Earlier, Communist Party leader Vladimir Voronin said that "the Communists will not participate in the presidential election" as they do not want to cast their ballots for "traitor" Lupu who quit the Communist Party a month before the 29 July early parliamentary election.
If parliament fails to elect the president in two attempts then acting president and speaker Mihai Ghimpu has the right to disband parliament and call a new early election which can take place only in 2010.
http://politicom.moldova.org/news/marian-lupu-moldovas-next-president-203981-eng.html

On October 9th, 2009, the meeting of CSI (commonwealth of former Soviet Union states) Heads of State took place in Kishinev. The President of Russia had bilateral meetings both with Mr. Lupu and Mr. Ghimpu while refusing a meeting with Mr. Voronin, the former Communist leader and President of Moldova.
But will this be enough to make Mr. Lupu President of Moldova in 2009 or the parties will not compromise and push for new early elections.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
44%
No
56%
Question suspends in 2 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 9th Dec 3:59pm PST (2 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Wed 14th Oct 2:41am PST by bgrigore
Suspended Fri 6th Nov 2:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Sat 21st Nov 5:31am PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-11-06 14:59:00"
Unsuspended Sat 21st Nov 5:32am PST by sqlman[Admin]: Bu author request

Suspend date: Wed 9th Dec 3:59pm PST (2 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (13)

20 hours ago
bernardo predicted No (H$5,000 at 50%)
2 weeks ago
jtinline predicted Yes (H$100 at 49%)
2 weeks ago
egalloway predicted Yes (H$20 at 49%)
3 weeks ago
tkui predicted No (H$50 at 51%)
4 weeks ago
bernardo predicted No (H$2,000 at 48%)

Comments (3)

  1 bgrigore
The first attempt to elect Marian Lupu as president of Moldova failed on November 10th, communists boycotting the election.
Under Moldovan law, another attempt will be held in 30 days. If this brings no result, acting president and parliamentary speaker Mihai Ghimpu will be forced to dissolve the legislature and set early parliamentary polls.
http://en.rian.ru/exsoviet/20091110/156779254.html
posted 1 week ago
  3 bgrigore
@sqlman Could you please reopen the question until December 6th? The first attempt to elect Moldovan president failed November 10th, a second and final one will probably be held around December 10th, the date is not yet set. Nothing is certain at this moment as regards the outcome of this question, and the only reason why I did not asked earlier after November 10th for reopening is that I thought that it will be no interest for the question.

Marian Lupu participated yesterday to the congress of the United Russia party (the rulling party in Russia, the party of Mr. Putin and Mr. Medvedev). A solution to unblock the situation is a referendum in Spring 2010 to change the Moldovan Constitution and allow president to be elected by popular vote instead of parliamentary vote but the attempts to unblock the situation could go as wild as to put Communist party against the law.
http://www.financiarul.ro/2009/11/20/republica-moldova-ar-putea-ramane-fara-presedinte/ (in Romanian : ))
posted 2 days ago

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