Created Wed 14th Oct 2:48pm PST by

gonegonegone Level 15, Seer (H$324,718)

Oil- up or down? December Contract. Which comes first - $70 oil or $80 oil?

Settled as Oil rises to $80 first

Closed Wednesday at $80.93

Background:

Background: Oil is currently trading at a 12 month high. But how much of this is due to increased demand or tightening supplies and how much due to the weak USD.
Settlement is based on closing price not intra-day trades.

American light sweet crude (CL on NYMEX)

This is for the December contract.
www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx

Suspends 17 November. Changes over to January contract about 20 Nov.

Business Editor may suspend question temporarily 1 hour before market closes if close to settlement. At his discretion he may also decide to temporarily suspend it during the changeover from November to December contracts.

Settlement details:Now for the final price of the November contract.
www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx

Forecast history %

Oil falls to $70 first

Oil rises to $80 first

100%

Oil does neither before December contract expires

Settled as Oil rises to $80 first on Sat 24th Oct 4:39am PST

Activity: H$132,265
Predictions: 192
Comments: 15

Suspend date: Wed 21st Oct 10am PST
Settlement date: Sat 24th Oct 4:39am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 21st Oct 10am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Oil falls to $70 first: 31%, Oil rises to $80 first: 36%, Oil does neither before December contract expires : 33%

Action history:

Created Wed 14th Oct 2:48pm PST by

gonegonegone Level 15, Seer (H$324,718)

Suspended Tue 20th Oct 2:51am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: checking data

Unsuspended Tue 20th Oct 2:53am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Still hasn't quite hit $80.00...needs to close at or above and fell 4¢ short on Monday

Changed Suspend date Tue 20th Oct 3:01am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: was: "2009-11-17 16:00:00"

Suspended Tue 20th Oct 10am PST : Suspend date reached

Changed Suspend date Tue 20th Oct 1:57pm PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: was: "2009-10-20 10:00:00"

Unsuspended Tue 20th Oct 1:57pm PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Close, but didn't make it...reopening until tomorrow's close

Suspended Wed 21st Oct 10am PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Wed 21st Oct 12:06pm PST by

mungo10 Level 14, Prophet (H$244,735)

: $80.93
http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx

Settlement requested Thu 22nd Oct 12:04pm PST by

mickeydaniel Level 16, Oracle (H$897,587)

: Please settle. Market closed on 10/21 at 80.93. www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx

Settlement requested Fri 23rd Oct 6:54am PST by

drzinternet Level 16, Oracle (H$719,237)

: has been trading over 80 for days now.

Settled as 'Oil rises to $80 first' Sat 24th Oct 4:39am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Closed Wednesday at $80.93

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Predictions (192)

4 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,694,250)

predicted Oil does neither before December contract expires (H$50 at 1%)

4 weeks ago

thepeoplegeekllc Level 13, Psychic (H$67,748)

predicted Oil rises to $80 first (H$3,000 at 98%)

4 weeks ago

masterblaster Level 8, Super-Pro (H$6,461)

predicted Oil rises to $80 first (H$500 at 89%)

4 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Oil does neither before December contract expires (H$200 at 13%)

4 weeks ago

sdchargers [Power User]

predicted Oil falls to $70 first (H$100 at 2%)

Comments (15)

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,338)

@Petefin...still hooked on your oil, gas and gold questions and doing ok...thank you

posted 5 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,694,250)

Great pic!

posted 5 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,338)

oil close to 78

posted 5 weeks ago

photochico Level 13, Psychic (H$58,640)

Might as well look at this one to see if the percentages are different: http://www.hubdub.com/m27683/Will_oil_hit_80_per_barrel_in_2009

posted 5 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,338)

posted 4 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,683,479)

Tomorrow is last day of trading for November contract.

posted 4 weeks ago

gonegonegone Level 15, Seer (H$324,718)

79.90. Nearly there.... 15.39NZT

posted 4 weeks ago

gonegonegone Level 15, Seer (H$324,718)

79.95 15.40NZT

posted 4 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

Remember this is for December Contract Oil...it's close, but hasn't closed above $80 yet...may well be today though

posted 4 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

In fact...it's so close, let's plan on a temporary suspension at 2:00 EDT, that's 30 minutes before trading closes...we'll reopen it if it doesn't break $80

posted 4 weeks ago

drzinternet Level 16, Oracle (H$719,237)

Down to 78.95. Looks like it won't need to be suspended today.

posted 4 weeks ago

drzinternet Level 16, Oracle (H$719,237)

78.55 and dropping.

posted 4 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,338)

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20091020/D9BER8CO0.html

was 80 briefly before it dropped

posted 4 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

Didn't make it to $80 so we'll open it for another 24 hours or so...see if it does it Wednesday....we may have to take this one day by day