Created Thu 15th Oct 12:12am PST by

HSX: Will "This is it" earn at least $103m in the dom box office during first 4 weeks?

Settled as No

Background: Is this a blockbuster in the making or just a huge marketing hype to cash in on MJs death ?

HSX is an estimate for 4 weeks - "This is it" was planned to run only 2 weeks - presales for tickets were high - there are rumors that it will be prolonged. The value of hsx increased by more than 10m the last days so some of the traders are
considering this. What is your bet?

You can bet on the prolongation of "This it it" here: http://www.hubdub.com/m55806/Will_Michael_Jacksons_This_Is_It_be_extended_beyond_its_twoweek_run

Another big HSX question. These questions use the HSX estimate of future movies: http://www.hsx.com/security/feature.php?type=upcoming and the background from boxoffice mojo.

MICHAEL JACKSON'S THIS IS IT
Release Date: 10/28/09 (Wednesday)
Final Date: 11/24/09 (see settlement rules)
Distributor: Sony / Columbia
Genre: Concert
MPAA Rating: PG

Settlement details:http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=showtimes&id=michaeljacksonthisisit.htm
Be careful this is also a decision Box Office-wise for a two/three/normal run of "This is it".
This counts four weeks - even if the Movie finishes after two!

Forecast history %

Yes

100%

Settled as No on Mon 16th Nov 5:09pm PST

Activity: H$231,401
Predictions: 110
Comments: 8

Suspend date: Today 3:05pm PST (8 hours to go)
Settlement date: Mon 16th Nov 5:09pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Thu 15th Oct 12:12am PST by

hfl13

Changed Settlement info Sat 17th Oct 3:43am PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

: show details

... ="http://~~www.~~boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=showtimes&id=~~saw6~~michaeljacksonthisisit.htm">http://~~www.~~boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=showtimes&id=~~saw6~~michaeljacksonthisisit.htm</a> <br/> Be careful

Settlement requested Mon 16th Nov 3:56pm PST by

hfl13

: From 3481 theaters the movie lost 444 Friday.

The movie is at a total $67,190,296 after 19 days and only made $5,078,920 the last weekend.

There is no way to 103m with only 9 days left. (with same results as a week before the movie only reaches 82,5m)

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=amelia.htm

Settlement requested Mon 16th Nov 3:58pm PST by

hfl13

: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=michaeljacksonthisisit.htm

Settled as 'No' Mon 16th Nov 5:09pm PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

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Suspend date: Today 3:05pm PST (8 hours to go)
Settlement date: Mon 16th Nov 5:09pm PST details

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Predictions (110)

5 days ago

albert Level 1, Newbie (H$734)

predicted Yes (H$698 at 5%)

5 days ago

cplrobinson Level 5, Predictor (H$1,681)

predicted Yes (H$603 at 1%)

5 days ago

albert Level 1, Newbie (H$734)

predicted Yes (H$648 at 2%)

5 days ago

cplrobinson Level 5, Predictor (H$1,681)

predicted Yes (H$25 at 0%)

5 days ago

cplrobinson Level 5, Predictor (H$1,681)

predicted Yes (H$20 at 4%)

Comments (8)

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,668,024)

hfl, are we really going to settle based on the earnings of SawVI?

posted 5 weeks ago

hfl13

yes with a very complicated mathematic formula

just a stupid mistake - luckily jenni always finds the right movie

(I would like the chance to edit mistikes like this one in the first 5 Minutes) I presses publish and found the mistake afterwards - my copy & paste method.

posted 5 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

@hfl - that's what the flag button is for! ;)

posted 5 weeks ago

hfl13

ok expect hundreds of flagged questions ;-)

posted 5 weeks ago

hfl13

The wednesday performance really was "not it" but "bad"!

NO

posted 3 weeks ago

hfl13

The wednesday performance really was "not it" but "bad"!

NO

posted 3 weeks ago

hfl13

... w I have 5 questions in doubt with high investments. I changed some but MJ will either gain me 30K or cost me 50K more or something in between.

posted 3 weeks ago

hfl13

@cplrobinson & albert be lucky that you cashed in fast - I cast wanted to save my networth and bit on no again. The movie has 68m after 3 weekends and had a bad weekend if the estimates are right. To reach 80 would be a mayor achievement. For 103m MJ would have to resurrect ;-)

posted 5 days ago