Created Fri 16th Oct 12:45pm PST by

When will the next $100 million blockbuster movie start?

Settled as 16th October 2009 (WTWTA/Paranormal Activity)

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/paranormal-activity-crosses-100m-cume-top-grossing-r-rated-thriller-of-past-decade/

Background:

Background: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs did it with yesterday BO numbers. This question will speed up a little in the next months.
Who will be next? Couples Retreat? Where the Wild Things Are? Michael Jackson´s This it it? Will Paranormal Activity be the Joker?

MJ Fans be careful with rule 2. : If WTWTA or Paranormal Activity reach 100m on the same day with "This is It" eg. their 3rd weekend the "underdog" wins.

What is the release date of the next blockbuster?

With the start of the last summer blockbuster G.I.Joe I was wonderung what movie will be next for $100 million? Because it is quite difficult to find all the right movies before the start I decided to ask "At what release date will the next movie start that beats the $100m barrier.

Today www.hsx.com has "Where the Wild Things Are" on October 16th and MJs "This is it" both above 100m. And Couples Retreat could be above 60m after this weekend. Who will be there first? Have fun! Later films are at 1% - these will all become Blockbusters but later. Maybe they win the next edition of this question.

Settlement details:As reported by http://www.boxofficemojo.com.

Paranormal Activity starts in wide release on the 16th October - instead of keeping September 25th I use the newer date. I intend to use always wide release start dates.

1. No movie released (wide release = 650 theaters) before October 2nd counts. The movie only needs the release date - it doesn´t need to be listed.
2. If two movies succeed on the same day, the release date of the movie wins that has the higher box office the day before. (underdog rule)
3. If there are changes with the release date the date counts (not the movie name in brackets).
4. Wednesday and other release dates count as the nearest Friday.
Monday 19th would be "16 October 2009"
Tuesday 20th would be "23 October 2009"
5. Question is settled as yes for "and later" with the BOM numbers of Thursday, 15th January 2010 if no other movie of a valid release date reaches 100m before or with Thursdays numbers.

Forecast history %

02nd October 2009 (Zombieland/Toy Story 3D)

09th October 2009 (Couples Retreat)

16th October 2009 (WTWTA/Paranormal Activity)

100%

23th October 2009 (SAW IV/Astro Boy)

30th October 2009 (Michael Jackson's This Is It)

06th November 09 (Chrismas Carol/Men Who Stare at)

13th November 09 (2012/Pirate Radio)

20th November 09 (Twilight New Moon/Planet 51)

25th November 09 (Old Dogs/Fantastic Mr. Fox)

04th Dec and later (Up in the Air/Armored)

Settled as 16th October 2009 (WTWTA/Paranormal Activity) on Fri 13th Nov 4:28am PST

Activity: H$170,832
Predictions: 223
Comments: 18

Suspend date: Sun 10th Jan 2010 3:05pm PST (6 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Fri 13th Nov 4:28am PST

Initial likelihoods: 02nd October 2009 (Zombieland/Toy Story 3D): 1%, 09th October 2009 (Couples Retreat): 10%, 16th October 2009 (WTWTA/Paranormal Activity): 50%, 23th October 2009 (SAW IV/Astro Boy): 5%, 30th October 2009 (Michael Jackson's This Is It): 25%, 06th November 09 (Chrismas Carol/Men Who Stare at): 5%, 13th November 09 (2012/Pirate Radio): 1%, 20th November 09 (Twilight New Moon/Planet 51): 1%, 25th November 09 (Old Dogs/Fantastic Mr. Fox): 1%, 04th Dec and later (Up in the Air/Armored): 1%

Action history:

Created Fri 16th Oct 12:45pm PST by

hfl13

Settled as '16th October 2009 (WTWTA/Paranormal Activity)' Fri 13th Nov 4:28am PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

: http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/paranormal-activity-crosses-100m-cume-top-grossing-r-rated-thriller-of-past-decade/

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Suspend date: Sun 10th Jan 2010 3:05pm PST (6 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Fri 13th Nov 4:28am PST details

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Predictions (223)

1 week ago

ghostbuster Level 12, Guru (H$36,050)

predicted 09th October 2009 (Couples Retreat) (H$5 at 0%)

1 week ago

ghostbuster Level 12, Guru (H$36,050)

predicted 23th October 2009 (SAW IV/Astro Boy) (H$3 at 0%)

1 week ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,694,250)

predicted 09th October 2009 (Couples Retreat) (H$2 at 0%)

1 week ago

sdrawkcabton88 Level 9, Expert (H$8,595)

predicted 20th November 09 (Twilight New Moon/Planet 51) (H$100 at 1%)

1 week ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,694,250)

predicted 13th November 09 (2012/Pirate Radio) (H$50 at 2%)

Comments (18)

hfl13

And once again - the hsx value is only for the first 4 weeks. Even the last relrease date has at least 6 weeks.

posted 5 weeks ago

mvguy

This is a tough one. I could make good arguments for three different films being the winner.

posted 5 weeks ago

hfl13

First estimate only 33,5m for WTWTA. Looks like a (very) long run for WTWTA, Paranormal Activity and Couples Retreat to reach 100m. My next try is "This is it".

posted 5 weeks ago

mvguy

I think that if "This Is It" reaches $100M, it'll happen well before "New Moon" opens. I think it'll have an extremely strong opening day ($40M?) and then drop off rapidly from there.

posted 4 weeks ago

hfl13

And if "This Is It" fails or lags there are Chrismas Carol and 2012! They could finish first or win by underdog rule on New Moons first weekend.

posted 4 weeks ago

mvguy

I expect "Christmas Carol" isn't going to start out terribly strong but will still end up with a terrific total (possibly $175M) by the end of the year as it'll be a steady holiday-season draw. As to "2012," the trailer is definitely impressive. If it has a plot to go with the special effects, it'll do quite well. Yeah, a tie with "New Moon" would be possible. I expect that "New Moon" will easily get its $100M in its first week. For the time being, though, my money's still on Jackson.

posted 4 weeks ago

hfl13

Todays Friday estimates knocked WTWTA out of the contenders but Paranormal Activity could reach it fast with another expansion on Halloween weekend.

posted 4 weeks ago

hfl13

Paranormal Activity is only expanding 457 theaters.

posted 3 weeks ago

koester Level 14, Prophet (H$195,234)

Michael Jacksons This is it was prolonged.
It will now run for additional 2 weeks afaik

posted 2 weeks ago

hfl13

Just another lying studio. Never have seen PR that damaging. This is the second movie after "Toy Story 3D" that was promoted with the "two weeks run" lie.
It won´t help "This is it" much because the movie is running out of fans and will never reach 100m domestically.

PA will reach 100m - the question is when. Will it be in time to beat 2012 and the following weeks New Moon (shouldn´t need more than 5 days for 100m).

posted 2 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,694,250)

hfl, what about your comment #1? Paranormal is in it's 39th day, way over the 4 weeks that matter.

posted 2 weeks ago

hfl13

That´s when I made this question I explicidly used the 16th October as PAs wide release date. PA started in limited release in Sepember and is as such not in conflict with rule 1. Comment #1 is about the hsx values I qoute in the background. I want everyone to know that a hsx 85 in 4 weeks hsx can get to 100m in time. This question is not time limited other than 15th January 2010 as in rule 5. Even the last startdate got 6 weeks time.

But with New Moons first week I will have to create the follow up question. There always is a next blockbuster

posted 2 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,694,250)

Gotcha, thanks for the clarification.

posted 2 weeks ago

hfl13

Warning: my modell predicts PA to reach 100m this Sunday - next Tuesday.

posted 2 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,694,250)

Of course I know better than to bet against you and expect to win in the Entertainment category, Harold, but I do take some small piece of comfort in knowing your model was off by a few days. ;-)

posted 1 week ago

hfl13

Yes and Couples Retreat came closer than I like last weekend.

I am only 85% right in movies this quarter. :-)

This question is more about instinct than modelling the market. I only follow the daily numbers for other markets.

posted 1 week ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,694,250)

Thanks for the tip on Couples. Wasn't even paying attention and while it's a longshot, it sure isn't the 31,000:1 odds that I just got on it with a $2 bet. :-D

posted 1 week ago

hfl13

Just beted 333 for 20K on CR - than I cashed in. Why? Because CR can make the missing 2,5m on Friday but PA needs only 0,8 on Thursday and wins on Friday too because of rule 2. (underdog). The chance of PA getting to 100m on Saturday are about 31000:1.

posted 1 week ago