When will the number of unemployed in the USA drop below 5.5 million?
The Labor Department reported that the advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov 14, 2009 dropped to 5,423,000. The figure was later revised to 5,436,000. Either way, the number dropped below 5.5 million.
Background:
Recent history (advance figures):
Oct 3, 2009: 5,992,000
Sept 26, 2009: 6,040,000
Sept 19, 2009: 6,090,000
Sept 12, 2009: 6,138,000
Sept 5, 2009: 6,230,000
Aug 29, 2009:6,088,000
Aug 22, 2009: 6,234,000
Aug 15, 2009: 6,143,000
Aug 8, 2009: 6,241,000
Aug 1, 2009: 6,202,000
July 25, 2009: 6,310,000
July 11, 2009: 6,225,000
July 4, 2009: 6,313,000
June 27, 2009: 6,883,000
A year ago, the figure was a "mere" 3,753,000
As you can see, the number topped out just below 7 million and took until now to ease back below 6 mil. We have a long way to go to get back to year-ago figures.
So, the question is: When will the advance number (seasonally adjusted) reported by the US Labor department for insured unemployment drop below 5.5 million? The numbers are reported each Thursday morning. Settlement is based on the date for which the number is reported (i.e. week ending....) NOT the date of the announcement.
Settlement details:http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm is the link to the Labor Department website.
| Week ending Oct 31 or before |
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| Week ending Nov 7 or Nov 14, 2009 |
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| Week ending Nov 21 or Nov 28, 2009 |
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| Week ending Dec 5 or Dec 12, 2009 |
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| Week ending Dec 19 or Dec 26, 2009 |
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| Week ending Jan 2 or Jan 9, 2010 |
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| Week ending Jan 16 or Jan 23, 2010 |
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| Week ending Jan 30 or Feb 6, 2010 |
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| Week ending Jan 13 or Feb 20, 2010 |
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| Week ending Feb 27, 2010 or beyond/not at all |
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- Activity: H$32,719 |
- Predictions: 50 |
Comments: 2
Suspend date: Tue 19th Jan 7:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 13th Dec 2009 7:13am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 26th Nov 2009 7:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Week ending Oct 31 or before: 5%, Week ending Nov 7 or Nov 14, 2009: 8%, Week ending Nov 21 or Nov 28, 2009: 10%, Week ending Dec 5 or Dec 12, 2009: 12%, Week ending Dec 19 or Dec 26, 2009: 15%, Week ending Jan 2 or Jan 9, 2010 : 15%, Week ending Jan 16 or Jan 23, 2010: 12%, Week ending Jan 30 or Feb 6, 2010: 10%, Week ending Jan 13 or Feb 20, 2010: 8%, Week ending Feb 27, 2010 or beyond/not at all: 5%
Action history:
tuff_sledding![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
: oops, I missed this one back on Wed, when the date release came a day early. Luckily, so did everybody else, because there does not seem to be any activity the last few days. The number dropped to 5,423,000 as of the week ending Nov 14
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
everybody loses.... (market suspended)
tuff_sledding: The Labor Department reported that the advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov 14, 2009 dropped to 5,423,000. The figure was later revised to 5,436,000. Either way, the number dropped below 5.5 million. Therefore, could we please settle this market?
Thanks
bayoubear![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: The Labor Department reported that the advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov 14, 2009 dropped to 5,423,000. The figure was later revised to 5,436,000. Either way, the number dropped below 5.5 million. 
Suspend date: Tue 19th Jan 7:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 13th Dec 2009 7:13am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 26th Nov 2009 7:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (50)
predicted Week ending Jan 13 or Feb 20, 2010 (H$10 at 2%)Comments (2)
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