Created Sat 17th Oct 4:44am PST by

When will the number of unemployed in the USA drop below 5.5 million?

Background: The Labor Department reported Thursday Oct 15, 2009 that the advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Oct 3,2009 was 5,992,000, dropping for the first time in over 6 months below the 6,000,000 mark
Recent history (advance figures):
Oct 3, 2009: 5,992,000
Sept 26, 2009: 6,040,000
Sept 19, 2009: 6,090,000
Sept 12, 2009: 6,138,000
Sept 5, 2009: 6,230,000
Aug 29, 2009:6,088,000
Aug 22, 2009: 6,234,000
Aug 15, 2009: 6,143,000
Aug 8, 2009: 6,241,000
Aug 1, 2009: 6,202,000
July 25, 2009: 6,310,000
July 11, 2009: 6,225,000
July 4, 2009: 6,313,000
June 27, 2009: 6,883,000
A year ago, the figure was a "mere" 3,753,000
As you can see, the number topped out just below 7 million and took until now to ease back below 6 mil. We have a long way to go to get back to year-ago figures.
So, the question is: When will the advance number (seasonally adjusted) reported by the US Labor department for insured unemployment drop below 5.5 million? The numbers are reported each Thursday morning. Settlement is based on the date for which the number is reported (i.e. week ending....) NOT the date of the announcement.

Settlement details:http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm is the link to the Labor Department website.

Forecast history %

Week ending Oct 31 or before

Week ending Nov 7 or Nov 14, 2009

Week ending Nov 21 or Nov 28, 2009

Week ending Dec 5 or Dec 12, 2009

Week ending Dec 19 or Dec 26, 2009

Week ending Jan 2 or Jan 9, 2010

Week ending Jan 16 or Jan 23, 2010

Week ending Jan 30 or Feb 6, 2010

Week ending Jan 13 or Feb 20, 2010

Week ending Feb 27, 2010 or beyond/not at all

79%

Question suspends in 8 weeks

Activity: H$32,398
Predictions: 47
Comments: 1

Suspend date: Tue 19th Jan 2010 7:59pm PST (8 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Week ending Oct 31 or before: 5%, Week ending Nov 7 or Nov 14, 2009: 8%, Week ending Nov 21 or Nov 28, 2009: 10%, Week ending Dec 5 or Dec 12, 2009: 12%, Week ending Dec 19 or Dec 26, 2009: 15%, Week ending Jan 2 or Jan 9, 2010 : 15%, Week ending Jan 16 or Jan 23, 2010: 12%, Week ending Jan 30 or Feb 6, 2010: 10%, Week ending Jan 13 or Feb 20, 2010: 8%, Week ending Feb 27, 2010 or beyond/not at all: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 17th Oct 4:44am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

hide

Suspend date: Tue 19th Jan 2010 7:59pm PST (8 weeks to go) details

Get widget!

Post on Digg Delicious Reddit Facebook

Predictions (47)

2 days ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Week ending Jan 30 or Feb 6, 2010 (H$100 at 2%)

2 days ago

math

predicted Week ending Jan 13 or Feb 20, 2010 (H$10 at 2%)

2 days ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Week ending Jan 16 or Jan 23, 2010 (H$100 at 2%)

2 days ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Week ending Jan 2 or Jan 9, 2010 (H$100 at 1%)

2 days ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Week ending Dec 19 or Dec 26, 2009 (H$200 at 3%)

Comments (1)

tuff_sledding [Power User]

the rate was reported to drop by 75,000 in each of the past two weeks. Not that one can necessarily assume the rate is sustainable, but at this rate, it would only take about another 6-8 weeks to get there. That is why the starting odds were set the way they were. I am surprised so many folks think it will not happen by the end of February, which is almost 5 months from now.

posted 4 weeks ago