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OIL RIG RUN: What will be the rig count in the US on 27-Nov-2009
Background: Making this a long term prediction until the end of next month.
Every week, Baker Hughes publishes the active rotary rig count for the United States on this page:
http://investor.shareholder.com/bhi/rig_counts/rc_index.cfm
A lot of information is available on that site. Some key points:
"A rotary rig rotates the drill pipe from surface to drill a new well (or sidetracking an existing one) to explore for, develop and produce oil or natural gas."
"Rig count trends are governed by oil company exploration and development spending, which in turn is influenced by the current and expected price of oil and natural gas. Rig counts therefore reflect the strength and stability of energy prices."
Here are the last few results:
21-Aug: 985 - UP 17
28-Aug: 999 - UP 14
4-Sep: 1009 - UP 10
11-Sep: 999 - down 10
18-Sep: 1010 - UP 11
25-Sep: 1017 - UP 7
2-Oct: 1024 - UP 7
9-Oct: 1041 - UP 17
16-Oct: 1040 - down 1
Every week, Baker Hughes publishes the active rotary rig count for the United States on this page:
http://investor.shareholder.com/bhi/rig_counts/rc_index.cfm
A lot of information is available on that site. Some key points:
"A rotary rig rotates the drill pipe from surface to drill a new well (or sidetracking an existing one) to explore for, develop and produce oil or natural gas."
"Rig count trends are governed by oil company exploration and development spending, which in turn is influenced by the current and expected price of oil and natural gas. Rig counts therefore reflect the strength and stability of energy prices."
Here are the last few results:
21-Aug: 985 - UP 17
28-Aug: 999 - UP 14
4-Sep: 1009 - UP 10
11-Sep: 999 - down 10
18-Sep: 1010 - UP 11
25-Sep: 1017 - UP 7
2-Oct: 1024 - UP 7
9-Oct: 1041 - UP 17
16-Oct: 1040 - down 1
Settlement details:As reported here:
http://investor.shareholder.com/bhi/rig_counts/rc_index.cfm
Forecast history %
| Under 1021 |
| ||||
| 1021 to 1040 |
| ||||
| 1041 to 1060 |
| ||||
| 1061 to 1080 |
| ||||
| 1081 to 1100 |
| ||||
| 0ver 1100 |
|
Question suspends in 5 days
- Activity: H$25,433 |
- Predictions: 27 |
Comments: 3
Suspend date: Thu 26th Nov 12:59pm PST (5 days to go)
Initial likelihoods: Under 1021: 5%, 1021 to 1040: 15%, 1041 to 1060: 20%, 1061 to 1080: 25%, 1081 to 1100: 25%, 0ver 1100: 10%
Action history:
Suspend date: Thu 26th Nov 12:59pm PST (5 days to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (27)
tuff_sledding
predicted 1081 to 1100 (H$100 at 2%)Comments (3)
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30-Oct: 1069 - up 21
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