Created Sat 17th Oct 2009 5:55am PST by

OIL RIG RUN: What will be the rig count in the US on 27-Nov-2009

Settled as 0ver 1100

Oil count as of 11/25 was 1137, up 24 from the prior set of numbers.

Apparently there was not a news release on Friday the 27th, so we'll use the last set of data as released on the 25th for this week.

Background:

Background: Making this a long term prediction until the end of next month.

Every week, Baker Hughes publishes the active rotary rig count for the United States on this page:

http://investor.shareholder.com/bhi/rig_counts/rc_index.cfm

A lot of information is available on that site. Some key points:

"A rotary rig rotates the drill pipe from surface to drill a new well (or sidetracking an existing one) to explore for, develop and produce oil or natural gas."

"Rig count trends are governed by oil company exploration and development spending, which in turn is influenced by the current and expected price of oil and natural gas. Rig counts therefore reflect the strength and stability of energy prices."

Here are the last few results:

21-Aug: 985 - UP 17
28-Aug: 999 - UP 14
4-Sep: 1009 - UP 10
11-Sep: 999 - down 10
18-Sep: 1010 - UP 11
25-Sep: 1017 - UP 7
2-Oct: 1024 - UP 7
9-Oct: 1041 - UP 17
16-Oct: 1040 - down 1

Settlement details:As reported here:
http://investor.shareholder.com/bhi/rig_counts/rc_index.cfm

Forecast history %

Under 1021

1021 to 1040

1041 to 1060

1061 to 1080

1081 to 1100

0ver 1100

90%

Settled as 0ver 1100 on Sat 28th Nov 2009 6:43am PST

Activity: H$25,806
Predictions: 29
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Thu 26th Nov 2009 12:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 28th Nov 2009 6:43am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 26th Nov 2009 12:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Under 1021: 5%, 1021 to 1040: 15%, 1041 to 1060: 20%, 1061 to 1080: 25%, 1081 to 1100: 25%, 0ver 1100: 10%

Action history:

Created Sat 17th Oct 2009 5:55am PST by

gtown

Suspended Thu 26th Nov 2009 12:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settled as '0ver 1100' Sat 28th Nov 2009 6:43am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Oil count as of 11/25 was 1137, up 24 from the prior set of numbers.

Apparently there was not a news release on Friday the 27th, so we'll use the last set of data as released on the 25th for this week.

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