Created Sat 17th Oct 2009 8:17am PST by

Will any Hubdubber gain 1,500,000 in Q4 2009?

Settled as Only one quarterly 1 1/2 millionaire

Background: There are a few "rich" Hubdubbers amassing impressive amounts a bit more than 2 weeks into this quarter. Currently, 5 players have a gain >200,000 to date in this quarter and 4 of them have >250,000 gain putting them close to the pace needed to make it to 1.5mil. Last quarter only one player made >1.25 mil. Of course, there are nearly 10 more weeks to go. The question is: how many (if any) will have gained more than 1,500,000 H$ at the end of the fourth quarter of 09? The pace can change a lot from month to month, folks get busy doing "real life" things, large bets can pay off big or go belly up. Anything can happen in ten weeks. Maybe a large Christmas bonus will get some over the hump. :-)

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. In case no mainstream source reports Hubdub gains, we will go with the Quarterly Gain Leaderboard using the value closest to midnight on December 31st, 2009: http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders

Forecast history %

Nobody makes a cool 1.5 million

82%

Only one quarterly 1 1/2 millionaire

17%

Two make 1.5 million bucks

Three hubdubbers manage the feat

Four get filthy rich in one quarter

Five or more boost their net worth by 1.5 million

Settled as Only one quarterly 1 1/2 millionaire on Fri 1st Jan 2:43am PST

Activity: H$56,266
Predictions: 93
Comments: 12

Suspend date: Tue 15th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 2:43am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 15th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Nobody makes a cool 1.5 million: 50%, Only one quarterly 1 1/2 millionaire: 25%, Two make 1.5 million bucks: 10%, Three hubdubbers manage the feat: 7%, Four get filthy rich in one quarter: 5%, Five or more boost their net worth by 1.5 million: 3%

Action history:

Created Sat 17th Oct 2009 8:17am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Suspended Tue 15th Dec 2009 12:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Thu 31st Dec 2009 9:49pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: only one did it - could have been two, but I didn't want it to be...

Settled as 'Only one quarterly 1 1/2 millionaire' Fri 1st Jan 2:43am PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

hide

Get widget!

Predictions (93)

13 weeks ago

roofrabbit Level 12, Guru (H$25,510)

predicted Only one quarterly 1 1/2 millionaire (H$20 at 17%)

13 weeks ago

mayank Level 8, Super-Pro (H$5,901)

predicted Nobody makes a cool 1.5 million (H$58 at 82%)

13 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Nobody makes a cool 1.5 million (H$600 at 51%)

13 weeks ago

yogi

predicted Nobody makes a cool 1.5 million (H$50 at 48%)

13 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Nobody makes a cool 1.5 million (H$500 at 42%)

Comments (12)

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,817,907)

The more people have a lot of money the more likely 1.5 million gain in one quarter is. It is not just your money but also everybody else's money. I say two or three people will gain 1.5 this quarter. It is not easy but there are at least 7 that have both the skill and the money to do it. My target for this question should be to double my money as I did in the previous quarters but I have already realised that it is impossible. There are too few good questions. So my target now is to create 300 questions this quarter.

posted 21 weeks ago

hfl13

Don´t expect me to reach 1,5m. The first month of a quarter is always my best. I was optimistic the last two quarters to reach 1m but failed both times narrowly. I expect 1,0-1,2 this quarter and hope to stay #1 quarterly.

At the moment my investments are 1,42m and I have no risks in my portfolio.

posted 20 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

hfl, I am counting on you to do 1.5 mil. You are currently well ahead of the pace to do it. I think there are 2-3 others with the tools, but a lot depends on what goes on with the economy, at least regarding my portfolio. Orlin can do it, Bogdan can. Maybe I can, but I may be too busy....

posted 19 weeks ago

hfl13

The pressure - the pressure. Everytime you expect something like this I am jinxed.

You are a bad voodoomaster ;-)

posted 19 weeks ago

hfl13

Luckily I only have 4K on nobody because it looks like I am the only candidate.

posted 16 weeks ago

hfl13

At the moment I only miss 390K. That seems doable in 38 days.

My bets are now on one - even if I am too late to win much.

posted 16 weeks ago

koester Level 15, Seer (H$317,672)

Heh my bets are against you :-) Eventho I do believe that you COULD do it.

posted 16 weeks ago

hfl13

At least you have the bigger odds. But I like my chances.

posted 16 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Harald, I have no doubt that you will get there, just make sure you STAY there on new year's eve! I have a few substantial bets on you. Net worth tends to fluctuate a lot these days, so make sure you have a good cushion against unexpected downdrafts :-)

posted 16 weeks ago

hfl13

It will be hard work to get 300K in 28 days. Last week I lost 60K Networth by hybris in entertainment. I have no big risks in my portfolio, my networth is very even and I have 1,4m cash.

posted 15 weeks ago

koester Level 15, Seer (H$317,672)

good luck :-)

posted 14 weeks ago

hfl13

Thanks!

posted 14 weeks ago