When will the number of unemployed in the USA drop below 5 million?

Suspended

Suspended pending settlement

Background:

Background: The Labor Department reported Thursday Oct 15, 2009 that the advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Oct 3,2009 was 5,992,000, dropping for the first time in over 6 months below the 6,000,000 mark
Recent history (advance figures):
Oct 3, 2009: 5,992,000
Sept 26, 2009: 6,040,000
Sept 19, 2009: 6,090,000
Sept 12, 2009: 6,138,000
Sept 5, 2009: 6,230,000
Aug 29, 2009:6,088,000
Aug 22, 2009: 6,234,000
Aug 15, 2009: 6,143,000
Aug 8, 2009: 6,241,000
Aug 1, 2009: 6,202,000
July 25, 2009: 6,310,000
July 11, 2009: 6,225,000
July 4, 2009: 6,313,000
June 27, 2009: 6,883,000
A year ago, the figure was a "mere" 3,753,000
As you can see, the number topped out just below 7 million and took until now to ease back below 6 mil. We have a long way to go to get back to year-ago figures.
So, the question is: When will the advance number (seasonally adjusted) reported by the US Labor department for insured unemployment drop below 5 million? The numbers are reported each Thursday morning. Settlement is based on the date for which the number is reported (i.e. week ending....) NOT the date of the announcement.

Settlement details:http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm is the link to the Labor Department website.

Forecast history %

February 28, 2010 or before

43%

March 1 to April 30, 2010

16%

May 1 to June 30, 2010

10%

July 1 to August 31, 2010

September 1 to October 31, 2010

November 1 to December 31, 2010

January 1 to February 28, 2011

March 1 to April 30, 2011

May 1 to June 30, 2011

July 1, 2011 or beyond / not at all

Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Activity: H$11,831
Predictions: 44
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Wed 15th Jun 2011 7:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: February 28, 2010 or before: 5%, March 1 to April 30, 2010: 8%, May 1 to June 30, 2010: 10%, July 1 to August 31, 2010: 12%, September 1 to October 31, 2010: 15%, November 1 to December 31, 2010 : 15%, January 1 to February 28, 2011: 12%, March 1 to April 30, 2011: 10%, May 1 to June 30, 2011: 8%, July 1, 2011 or beyond / not at all: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 17th Oct 2009 12:19pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 7:13am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: Suspended pending settlement

Settlement requested Thu 31st Dec 2009 7:13am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 19 was 4,981,000, a decrease of 57,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,038,000.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm (market suspended)

Settlement requested Tue 12th Jan 3:30am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: dropped below 5 mill a couple of weeks ago, therefore the winner is "February 28, 2010 or before"
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

Settlement requested Mon 18th Jan 10:41am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: Any reason this can't be settled?
The rate dropped below 5 mil the week of Dec 19, when the US department of labor reported the number of unemployed dropped to 4,979,000: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
Thanks

Settlement requested Sat 20th Feb 4:26am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: John, this one seems to have slipped by. Settlement criteria were reached back on Dec 19. Please see settlement data as per: http://www.hubdub.com/m62716/How_many_people_will_be_on_the_dole_in_the_USA_for_the_wk_ending_December_19_2009_
Thanks - just trying to tidy up.
Cheers, Martin

hide