Created Sat 17th Oct 12:19pm PST by

When will the number of unemployed in the USA drop below 5 million?

Background: The Labor Department reported Thursday Oct 15, 2009 that the advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Oct 3,2009 was 5,992,000, dropping for the first time in over 6 months below the 6,000,000 mark
Recent history (advance figures):
Oct 3, 2009: 5,992,000
Sept 26, 2009: 6,040,000
Sept 19, 2009: 6,090,000
Sept 12, 2009: 6,138,000
Sept 5, 2009: 6,230,000
Aug 29, 2009:6,088,000
Aug 22, 2009: 6,234,000
Aug 15, 2009: 6,143,000
Aug 8, 2009: 6,241,000
Aug 1, 2009: 6,202,000
July 25, 2009: 6,310,000
July 11, 2009: 6,225,000
July 4, 2009: 6,313,000
June 27, 2009: 6,883,000
A year ago, the figure was a "mere" 3,753,000
As you can see, the number topped out just below 7 million and took until now to ease back below 6 mil. We have a long way to go to get back to year-ago figures.
So, the question is: When will the advance number (seasonally adjusted) reported by the US Labor department for insured unemployment drop below 5 million? The numbers are reported each Thursday morning. Settlement is based on the date for which the number is reported (i.e. week ending....) NOT the date of the announcement.

Settlement details:http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm is the link to the Labor Department website.

Forecast history %

February 28, 2010 or before

March 1 to April 30, 2010

May 1 to June 30, 2010

July 1 to August 31, 2010

September 1 to October 31, 2010

November 1 to December 31, 2010

11%

January 1 to February 28, 2011

15%

March 1 to April 30, 2011

13%

May 1 to June 30, 2011

12%

July 1, 2011 or beyond / not at all

14%

Question suspends in 1 year

Activity: H$5,326
Predictions: 26
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Wed 15th Jun 2011 7:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: February 28, 2010 or before: 5%, March 1 to April 30, 2010: 8%, May 1 to June 30, 2010: 10%, July 1 to August 31, 2010: 12%, September 1 to October 31, 2010: 15%, November 1 to December 31, 2010 : 15%, January 1 to February 28, 2011: 12%, March 1 to April 30, 2011: 10%, May 1 to June 30, 2011: 8%, July 1, 2011 or beyond / not at all: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 17th Oct 12:19pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

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