Created Sun 18th Oct 11:19am PST by

HSX: Will "Cirque du Freak" earn at least $26m in the dom box office during first 4 weeks?

Settled as No

Background: The last HSX questions of the month. The questions use the HSX estimate of future movies: http://www.hsx.com/security/feature.php?type=upcoming and the background from boxoffice mojo.

CIRQUE DU FREAK:
THE VAMPIRE'S ASSISTANT
Release Date: 10/23/09
Final Date: 11/19/09
Distributor: Universal
Genre: Fantasy
Running Time: 1 hrs. 48 min.
MPAA Rating: PG-13
Theaters: 2750+
Director: Paul Weitz
Writer: Brian Helgeland
Actors: John C. Reilly
Ken Watanabe
Josh Hutcherson
Patrick Fugit
Ray Stevenson
Orlando Jones
Salma Hayek

Settlement details:http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=cirquedufreak.htm

Forecast history %

Yes

100%

Settled as No on Wed 11th Nov 6:29pm PST

Activity: H$122,284
Predictions: 35
Comments: 2

Suspend date: Sat 14th Nov 3:05pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 11th Nov 6:29pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sun 18th Oct 11:19am PST by

hfl13

Settlement requested Wed 11th Nov 5:57pm PST by

hfl13

: From 2754 theaters the movie lost 1337 Friday.

The movie is at a total $13,152,200 after 19 days and only made $1,143,905 the last weekend.

There is no way to 26m with only 9 days left. (with same results as a week before the movie only reaches 15,4m)

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=amelia.htm

Settlement requested Wed 11th Nov 5:58pm PST by

hfl13

: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=cirquedufreak.htm

Settlement requested Wed 11th Nov 5:58pm PST by

hfl13

: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=cirquedufreak.htm

Settled as 'No' Wed 11th Nov 6:29pm PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

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Suspend date: Sat 14th Nov 3:05pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 11th Nov 6:29pm PST details

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Predictions (35)

2 weeks ago

chull

predicted No (H$10,000 at 99%)

4 weeks ago

curly

predicted Yes (H$300 at 61%)

4 weeks ago

marius Level 1, Newbie (H$487)

predicted No (H$50 at 40%)

4 weeks ago

johnd

predicted Yes (H$500 at 58%)

4 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

predicted Yes (H$2,500 at 54%)

Comments (2)

koester Level 14, Prophet (H$190,229)

Please note that this question is asking for the first 4 weeks.
The Movie was released on friday 23rd October - should not be settled until Friday 20th November (which is 4 weeks later)

Dunno if a Cat - Ed wants to clarify in the question text.

posted 2 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

Yes this question is asking if the movie can earn 26 million in its first four weeks (which would be through the 19th). But frequently, these type of questions settle early when it becomes apparent that there is no way for a movie to get to the total. This one in particular, I would expect to see settled pretty soon as there is no chance for the movie to make another 16 million in the next two weeks when it garnered only 10 million in its first two weeks.

posted 2 weeks ago