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Will there be a hung parliment after the next UK general election?

Background: In parliamentary systems, a hung parliament is one in which no one political party has an outright majority, and means it is most commonly equally balanced. This situation is normal in many legislatures with proportional representation such as Germany or Italy, or in legislatures with strong regional parties; in such legislatures the term 'hung parliament' is rarely used. However in majoritarian chambers with weak regional parties, such as the United Kingdom, a hung parliament is a rarity, as in these circumstances one party will usually hold enough seats to form a majority.
The most recent hung parliament after a general election in the United Kingdom was the February 1974 general election, which lasted until the October election that year. Prior to that the last had been the elections of 1951 and 1929. Hung parliaments can also arise when slim government majorities are eroded by by-election defeats and defection of Members of Parliament to opposition parties. This happened in 1996 to the Conservative government of John Major (1990-97) and in 1978 to the Labour government of James Callaghan (later Lord Callaghan of Cardiff) (1976-79)

Settlement details:General Election results as reported by the Electoral Commission of the United Kingdom.

As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
36%
No
64%
Question suspends in 28 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 10th Jun 2010 11:59pm PST (28 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 65%

Action history:

Created Sun 18th Oct 1:38pm PST by harlech

Suspend date: Thu 10th Jun 2010 11:59pm PST (28 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (15)

2 weeks ago
ieujam1 predicted No (H$2,000 at 63%)
3 weeks ago
indie1977 predicted No (H$500 at 64%)
3 weeks ago
tinpeeba predicted Yes (H$50 at 37%)
3 weeks ago
ajmitchell predicted Yes (H$40 at 37%)
3 weeks ago
daddeoh predicted No (H$1,000 at 63%)

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