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Will Karzai win in Afghanistan's runoff election against Abdullah?

Voided

As the runoff was canceled, we've no choice but to void. Our apologies.

Background:

Background: Afghanistan's Election Commision ordered a runoff scheduled for November 7th between incumbent Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah after an investigation suspected fraud of Karzai's victory, dropping votes below 50% of the total.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091020/ap_on_re_as/as_afghanistan;_ylt=A2KIKukXzN1K03sAtwms0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTJzbWtnazUzBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMDkxMDIwL2FzX2FmZ2hhbmlzdGFuBGNwb3MDMQRwb3MDMwRwdANob21lX2Nva2UEc2VjA3luX3RvcF9zdG9yeQRzbGsDZnVsbG5ic3BzdG9y

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Category Editor Clarification: For purposes of this question, 'win' means who will initially be counted as the winner when votes are announced by the Election Commission.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
50%
No
50%
Voided Sun 8th Nov 4:31am PST

Suspend date: Fri 6th Nov 3:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Tue 20th Oct 6:44am PST by morganliberty
Suspended Sun 1st Nov 4:23am PST by sqlman[Admin]: Checking possible settlement details
Voided Sun 8th Nov 4:31am PST by sqlman[Admin]: As the runoff was canceled, we've no choice but to void. Our apologies.

Suspend date: Fri 6th Nov 3:59pm PST details

 

Predictions (15)

4 weeks ago
syne predicted Yes (H$50 at 76%)
4 weeks ago
bernardo predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 75%)
4 weeks ago
mumforga predicted Yes (H$50 at 75%)
4 weeks ago
ozarkguy predicted Yes (H$20 at 75%)
4 weeks ago
gtown[Power User] predicted No (H$100 at 37%)

Comments (1)

  1 mungo10
If there is no run-off, does this count as 'no'?
posted 3 weeks ago

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