What will be the % lead at the UK General Election in 2010?

Background: Whilst most people will be interested in the majority an incoming government has at a general election, in recent years people have become interested in the lead between the top two parties.This was highlighted in 2005, when Labour won a 66 seat majority despite only being 3% ahead of the Conservatives. What do you think the vote lead will be in 2010 in Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales only)?

Settlement details:As reported by the Press Assoiation, BBC, Sky, ITN

Forecast history %

Conservative lead over Labour of 15.00% +

14%

Conservative lead over Labour of 10.00% to 14.99%

18%

Conservative lead over Labour of 5.00% to 9.99%

43%

Conservative lead over Labour of 0.01% to 4.99%

Conservative and Labour tied

Labour lead over Conservative of 0.01% to 4.99%

Labour lead over Conservative of 5.00% to 9.99%

Labour lead over Conservative of 10.00% to 14.99%

Labour lead over Conservative of 15.00% +

All three parties (Con, Lab, Lib Dem) tied

Question suspends in 23 weeks

Activity: H$2,100
Predictions: 2
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Wed 5th May 2010 1pm PST (23 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Conservative lead over Labour of 15.00% +: 22%, Conservative lead over Labour of 10.00% to 14.99%: 25%, Conservative lead over Labour of 5.00% to 9.99%: 15%, Conservative lead over Labour of 0.01% to 4.99%: 13%, Conservative and Labour tied: 12%, Labour lead over Conservative of 0.01% to 4.99%: 5%, Labour lead over Conservative of 5.00% to 9.99%: 3%, Labour lead over Conservative of 10.00% to 14.99%: 2%, Labour lead over Conservative of 15.00% +: 2%, All three parties (Con, Lab, Lib Dem) tied: 1%

Action history:

Created Wed 21st Oct 10:34am PST by

harryhayfield Level 10, Genius (H$11,429)

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