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Were the two Northwest pilots who overshot their destination by 150 miles asleep at the wheel?

Background: WASHINGTON - Two Northwest Airlines pilots who overshot their destination by 150 miles before turning back should have had numerous warnings as they approached and passed Minneapolis: cockpit displays, controllers trying repeatedly to reach, the city lights twinkling below.

Yet the pilots didn't discover their mistake until a flight attendant in the cabin contacted them by intercom, said a source close to the investigation who wasn't authorized to talk publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity. By that time, the plane was over Eau Claire, Wis., and the pilots had been out of communication with air traffic controllers for over an hour.

The crew told authorities they were distracted during a heated discussion over airline policy, the Federal Aviation Administration said. But federal officials are investigating whether pilot fatigue might be to blame.

NTSB spokesman Keith Holloway said Thursday investigators hadn't yet questioned the pilots and didn't know whether it was possible they had fallen asleep. The pilots have been suspended from flying by their airline while it, too, investigates.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091023/ap_on_go_ot/us_northwest_airport_overflown
---------------------------------
I've had a lot of fascinating conversations at work and even worked 45 minutes after I should have gone home, so it seems plausable, right? OK, probably not, but the other part of the question is whether we will ever know. Seems like the flight data recorders will answer the question, but maybe not or the investigation may not be made public before settlement.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Settlement date equals suspension date. May settle on preliminary report from the FAA or the airlines. Will not re-settle if there is a final report later with a different conclusion.

 
Forecast history %
Yep, both were sleeping/unconscious in the cockpit
1%
No, both were distracted/otherwise occupied-awake
62%
No news by settlement/other
37%
Question suspends in 22 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 30th Apr 2010 11:59pm PST (22 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yep, both were sleeping/unconscious in the cockpit: 60%, No, both were distracted/otherwise occupied-awake: 20%, No news by settlement/other: 20%

Action history:

Created Fri 23rd Oct 7:11am PST by frogchop
Settlement requested Mon 26th Oct 12:21pm PST by mungo10: I don't think that first link says anything other than the pilots were being interviewed.
However, today it appears they were using laptops.
http://www.startribune.com/business/65982292.html
Settlement requested Tue 27th Oct 1:53pm PST by vincentlaw13: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8327073.stm
Settlement requested Mon 2nd Nov 2:35pm PST by mungo10: FAA report results in pilots' licenses being pulled.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-pilots28-2009oct28,0,7979217.story

Suspend date: Fri 30th Apr 2010 11:59pm PST (22 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (254)

2 weeks ago
sigil predicted No, both were distracted/otherwise occupied-awake (H$100 at 84%)
2 weeks ago
bout3fitty predicted No news by settlement/other (H$500 at 15%)
2 weeks ago
bout3fitty predicted No news by settlement/other (H$2,000 at 31%)
2 weeks ago
bout3fitty predicted No news by settlement/other (H$500 at 14%)
2 weeks ago
oocares predicted No, both were distracted/otherwise occupied-awake (H$2,000 at 90%)

Comments (22)

  1 frogchop
Possibly a complicating factor:
"The plane's flight recorders were brought to Washington Friday, but the cockpit voice recorder is an older model that contains only the last 30 minutes of conversation. That makes the investigation more difficult since that time would be taken up by the flight back to Minneapolis — the intended destination — and the landing there Wednesday night."
posted 4 weeks ago
  2 chatarra
I think the two pilots were sleeping, but it will be difficult to prove. Their pensions depend on their silence.
posted 4 weeks ago
Hopefully they will stick to their story or maybe they will release a tape of there heated discussion with no sound with their heads resting on little airline pillows with nice small blanket keeping them warm
posted 4 weeks ago
  4 cici
I don't need anymore "complicating factors".
posted 3 weeks ago
  5 Erik
Northwest's New Motto: "We'll Get You Within 150 Miles of There"
Launches New Sleeper ServiceTM

MINNEAPOLIS - Trying to make the best of what could be a public relations disaster, Northwest Airlines today unveiled a new corporate slogan, "We'll Get You Within 150 Miles of There."

According to Carol Foyler, a Northwest spokesperson, the new slogan "reflects our dedication to getting our passengers as close as possible to their intended destination."

Northwest timed the announcement of their new slogan to coincide with the launch of their new Sleeper ServiceTM.

The new sleeper service provides fully reclining seats, pillows and blankets for all travelers seated in the cockpit area.

According to Ms. Foyler, "Our new Sleeper Service TM should reassure all Northwest travelers that our pilots are the best-rested in the industry."

http://www.borowitzreport.com/
posted 3 weeks ago
  6 sqlman[Admin]
News reports today stated that the pilots told investigators that they were using their laptops in the cockpit, but that they were neither asleep nor arguing. However, this market's details state that settlement will occur on a preliminary report from either the FAA or the airline. Those investigations are ongoing, so we'll still need to wait before settling.
posted 3 weeks ago
  7 hfl13
Still expect the official report to contain no news or other, because to belive the misbehaving pilot would be stupid (they chose a less damaging explanation) and the voice box is not delievering results.

Maybe the crew or first class paasengers can give statements. Sleeping/unconcious still has merit. I expect the FAA report to read "critical pilot error" in general terms.
posted 3 weeks ago
  8 coolkraft
do you really think they would admit they fell asleep....a made up story about laptops IMHO
posted 3 weeks ago
  9 hfl13
I am just waiting for some official report - the pilots are unbelievable but whats with the stewardesses - do they want to loose their job too. This whole story sounds like a mystery. Very Twilight Zone. Must have been aliens.

The stewardesses and passengers knew they were to land at a scheduled time. Some passenger should have noticed that the landing approach was way off. Are there no new news? This gets stranger.
posted 3 weeks ago
  10 chatarra
@CoolKraft,
FWIW - I agree.
posted 3 weeks ago
  11 chatarra
@Sqlman - What is your opinion?
I defer to you after seeing your knowledge of flying on some other questions that have been wagered on in the past.
If they were sleeping, I imagine the auto pilot would guide the plane safely through the skies. But at some point wouldn't an alarm come on saying that the aircraft needed to lose altitude in order to reach the landing strip? Even my basic GPS device will alert me if I miss a turn.
If they were using their laptop computers surf the internet, then wouldn't their ISP have some record of traffic from that account? That should make it easy to verify whether the laptop had been used even a little bit to cruise on the information super highway? Their story will probably be that they did not need internet access to see the files they wanted to see.

@Hfl13,
It IS a bit like the twilight zone.
I imagine myself on board that airplane and looking at my watch with the following scenario.
After calling the flight attendant to my seat:
Oh miss, could you bring me a fresh cup of coffee, please.
Also, I notice we are still flying at a quite a distance above the ground but if my memory serves me right we should have landed 10 minutes ago.
After the flight attendant returns to the passenger with the news:
Oh miss, is it too late to change my order from coffee to a double shot of whiskey?
posted 3 weeks ago
  12 frogchop
One of the early reports (many of which have been contradicted now) said that the flight attendants were making excuses to the passengers that they were circling. The fact is, these guys admitted to something that's a clear violation of FAA regulations by admitting to using their laptops in the cockpit, but was it to cover for something worse (i.e. sleeping or frolicking with flight attendants) or was that finally the truth coming out? My guess is the FAA will punish based on their admission, but continue to investigate, following up with 1st class passengers and flight attendants.
posted 3 weeks ago
  13 sqlman[Admin]
I don't have an ATP license, so I've never flown any of the big stuff, but it's just very difficult for me to imagine how those guys, no matter how engrossed in their laptops they claim to have been, could have completely lost track of time for so long, and how they could have possibly missed the audible and visible cues letting them know they'd gone so far past the airport. According to reports, their radio was lively with chatter...that is, with controllers at first politely, then not so politely, asking them where the hell they thought they were going. Their navigational guidance systems would have let them know with lights and sound that they'd missed their turn (so to speak).

I personally think they're lying, but we may never know. Maybe they're telling the truth. But what really bothers me is folks coming to the pilots' defense and saying, "Well, the plane and its occupants were never in danger, so what's the big deal?" The big deal is that things could have been much, much worse...and might be the next time. Their inattention could have allowed them to plunge head-on into a vicious thunderstorm or severe and unrecoverable icing conditions or the side of a mountain; they could have gotten so low on fuel that they'd be forced to do a dead stick, lights-out night landing on some too-short municipal airport's runway; the military, failing to contact the pilots as the plane approached a major metropolitan area or sensitive airspace, might have ordered a pair of Sidewinders be shot up the plane's tailpipe.

If the laptop thing is a lie, it'll end up getting them fired anyway, so you might ask why they would they have bothered in the first place. I suppose that they may have just figured the laptop thing might have only meant a slap on the wrist, while sleeping would have been dealt with more harshly. Unless the pilots' union gets its way, it looks like they figured wrong. ;-)
posted 3 weeks ago
  14 hfl13
I agree with sqlman that this was very dangerous behavior and should be punished by losing their jobs and getting a trial for endangering air traffic in general. Not paying attention to instruments and the air control tower are serious. Worst case scenarios a) Running out of fuel b) presumed Terrorist attack/hijacking.
posted 3 weeks ago
  15 frogchop
Well, the laptop story is much better than the lap dance story. :-O
posted 3 weeks ago
  16 thetexas
Why does nobody believe they'll come clean? They'll both have books out next year and they'll have their tear jerking moment on Oprah.
posted 3 weeks ago
  17 frogchop
Nah, their rich and the national sentiment is against people who have perfectly good jobs and do completely stupid things that get them fired. In 2002 they might have caught some slack, but today, with the economy in the shape it is, no way.
posted 2 weeks ago
  18 bout3fitty
They may not have had as many radio calls as we've been led to believe...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125694173644619551.html
posted 2 weeks ago
  19 mungo10
> Settlement details > May settle on preliminary report from the FAA or the airlines.

How about a report from the NTSB?
posted 2 weeks ago
  20 frogchop
An alternative explanation that has no evidence to support it, but what the heck, anything is possible:
http://www.transworldnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?id=135270&cat=11
posted 1 day ago
LOL frogchop
posted 23 hours ago

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