Created Fri 23rd Oct 12:32pm PST by

Will the 'Public Option' be part of Health Care Reform signed by President Obama?

Background: Public Option Google News Stream:
http://tinyurl.com/yksbzhp

Robert Reich on the Public Option:
http://tinyurl.com/yjclxt6
http://robertreich.blogspot.com

Additional Background:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_insurance_option

Settlement details:The PUBLIC OPTION is defined as a non-profit or for-profit government run competitor to private insurance companies -- as reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

48%

52%

Question suspends in 18 weeks

Activity: H$31,646
Predictions: 84
Comments: 5

Suspend date: Wed 31st Mar 2010 11:59pm PST (18 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 23rd Oct 12:32pm PST by

lola

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Suspend date: Wed 31st Mar 2010 11:59pm PST (18 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (84)

2 days ago

modigs2000 Level 6, Player (H$2,901)

predicted No (H$50 at 55%)

2 days ago

neoquietus Level 7, Pro (H$4,281)

predicted Yes (H$500 at 45%)

1 week ago

kruijs [Power User]

predicted No (H$1,000 at 54%)

1 week ago

vlad79 Level 7, Pro (H$3,475)

predicted No (H$100 at 50%)

1 week ago

zargonddg Level 14, Prophet (H$199,451)

predicted No (H$500 at 48%)

Comments (5)

mvguy

I'm assuming that if there's no bill for Obama to sign that this cashes out as "no."

posted 3 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,667,349)

That's the reply I got from admin when I flagged this asking the same question, mvguy. No bill to sign = no.

posted 3 weeks ago

hfl13

Is the "Trigger" a form of "Public Option" for this question ?

posted 3 weeks ago

lola

The key question within this question is will private insurers face direct competition from the federal government in Health Care. From what I understand about the various trigger proposals, each of them would defer the creation of competition until prescribed negative outcomes manifest.

To answer your question in plain english HFL13, if President Obama signs legislation which CREATES DIRECT COMPETITION between the federal government and private insurers in the health insurance marketplace at the time the legislation is signed, this market should settle as YES.

posted 3 weeks ago