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How many viewers will the first Simpsons episode with the "Best. Character. Ever." have?

Background: The Simpsons" continues to celebrate their 20th year on TV with a "Best. Character. Ever." contest. The Fox animated show wants fans to draw their own character for the show.

Fans aged 18 years or older can try his/her luck in creating a "Simpsons" character. The characters must include name, aliases, age, distinguishing features, and known catchphrases.

Deadline for submission is on October 24. Episode is planned to air on January 31, 2010.

The episode in which the new character will appear will see Homer disappoint Marge by arriving late at a wedding ceremony after stopping to buy a lottery ticket. He encounters the new resident while rushing to the wedding.

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7016732955
http://thesimpsons.com/character/

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source, based on Nielsen numbers. Example:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/category/ratings/nielsen-overnight-tv-show-ratings

 
Forecast history %
less than 5 million viewers
1%
5 to less than 7.5 million viewers
4%
7.5 to less than 10 million viewers
37%
10 to less than 12.5 million viewers
51%
12.5 million viewers or more
7%
character not to feature any episode
1%
Question suspends in 10 weeks

Suspend date: Sun 31st Jan 2010 11:59pm PST (10 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: less than 5 million viewers: 3%, 5 to less than 7.5 million viewers: 15%, 7.5 to less than 10 million viewers: 30%, 10 to less than 12.5 million viewers: 35%, 12.5 million viewers or more: 15%, character not to feature any episode: 2%

Action history:

Created Sat 24th Oct 11:51am PST by kruijs[Power User]

Suspend date: Sun 31st Jan 2010 11:59pm PST (10 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (33)

4 days ago
gtown[Power User] predicted 7.5 to less than 10 million viewers (H$1,000 at 32%)
4 days ago
gtown[Power User] predicted 10 to less than 12.5 million viewers (H$2,000 at 51%)
1 week ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted 10 to less than 12.5 million viewers (H$1,000 at 34%)
1 week ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted 7.5 to less than 10 million viewers (H$1,000 at 40%)
2 weeks ago
bluberry predicted 10 to less than 12.5 million viewers (H$20 at 34%)

Comments (4)

New Market: "Can Kruijs continue to post a new Simpsons question every day until the new character is revealed?"
posted 4 weeks ago
  2 cici
No.
posted 4 weeks ago
  3 gtown[Power User]
Go kruijs, nice imagination on this series! It will make it all the more exciting when my entry wins ;)
posted 4 weeks ago
  4 kruijs[Power User]
the next one:
http://www.hubdub.com/m57647/
posted 4 weeks ago

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