Created Sat 24th Oct 12pm PST by

onedave [Power User]

Will a second manatee be confirmed within ten miles of Richmond, Virginia, before October 24, 2010?

Background: On October 19, 2009, Joel Cloud photographed a manatee swimming in the James River in the Dutch Gap area of Chester, Virginia. The next day, Joe Owen, Jr. photographed a manatee five miles downriver in Richmond. On October 21, Owen took another manatee photograph in the Dutch Gap area.

Experts confirmed that the photographs showed a manatee. However, they are unsure if the photographs showed the same manatee. Owen estimated that the manatee was swimming easily at 3-4 miles per hour. At that rate, one manatee could swim from Dutch Gap to Richmond in a matter of hours. It was the first report of a manatee in Richmond since 2002.

Additional information:
http://www2.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/local_other/article/MANA23_20091022-222404/301124/
http://www.wtkr.com/news/wtkr-manatee-james-river,0,4906136.story

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Question will settle as 'yes,' if experts confirm the existence of a second manatee in the area before the settlement date.

Forecast history %

Yes

47%

53%

Question suspends in 47 weeks

Activity: H$28,704
Predictions: 21
Comments: 1

Suspend date: Fri 22nd Oct 2010 8pm PST (47 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sat 24th Oct 12pm PST by

onedave [Power User]

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Suspend date: Fri 22nd Oct 2010 8pm PST (47 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (21)

2 weeks ago

dingoh Level 13, Psychic (H$98,272)

predicted No (H$100 at 71%)

2 weeks ago

munoz65 Level 7, Pro (H$4,139)

predicted Yes (H$100 at 28%)

3 weeks ago

galad

predicted Yes (H$20 at 28%)

3 weeks ago

sdchargers [Power User]

predicted No (H$333 at 72%)

3 weeks ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$357,410)

predicted No (H$100 at 70%)

Comments (1)

capecodviking [Power User]

Interesting. We had a manatee way up on Cape Cod, MA last fall. They tried to "rescue" it by taking it in a truck to Florida, and it died en route. This fall on the exact same date in the very same harbor in East Dennis another manatee showed up.

posted 4 weeks ago