How long will the CDU/SPD-coalition in Thuringia hold?

Background: Recent elections in Thuringia cost the CDU their ability to rule without a partner. The SPD, in Thuringia only 3rd largest party behind THE LEFT, decided to become a partner, though many party members would have preferred a possible alliance with THE LEFT and the Green Party.

After incumbent (and terror of the Alps) Dieter Althaus withdrew from office, Christine Lieberknecht was chosen successor. However, it took her three rounds until she got elected by Thuringias diet today.

Is this a clear sign that the coalition is shaky from the start?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source, e.g. www.spiegel.de

Forecast history %

The coalition breaks in 2009.

It is the end in the first half of 2010.

CDU/SPD rule together until the second half of '10

16%

Government lasts until 2011.

15%

It is Jan 1st, 2012 and Lieberknecht is still MP

58%

Question suspends in 2 years

Activity: H$1,731
Predictions: 7
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Sun 1st Jan 2012 11:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: The coalition breaks in 2009.: 5%, It is the end in the first half of 2010.: 10%, CDU/SPD rule together until the second half of '10: 15%, Government lasts until 2011.: 20%, It is Jan 1st, 2012 and Lieberknecht is still MP: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 30th Oct 7:07am PST by

hoernla Level 13, Psychic (H$79,677)

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