Created Sat 31st Oct 4:24am PST by

Diesel fuel up or down? Which will come first: $2.75 or $2.90 on or before November 30, 2009?

Background: Diesel fuel has been up and down this year. At the end of the summer, the price peaked at $2.685, dropped nicely for a few weeks, but recently rebounded with a vengeance this past week in response to signs of improvement in the economy and rising oil prices. As I write this diesel costs $2.834/gallon, up 20.6 cents from a month ago (yes, I know the Europeans and Australians are snickering at these ridiculous units we use instead of liters). So, where do we go from here?
The question is: Will a gallon of diesel fuel price drop to $2.75 or less, rise to 2.90 or more, or remain between the two values between now and November 30, 2009 (inclusive) in the USA, as reported by AAA fuelgaugereport? The price is updated daily in the early morning hours.

Settlement details:As reported by the AAA: http://www.fuelgaugereport.com on or before November 30, 2009.

Forecast history %

Diesel drops to $2.75 or below

Diesel rises to $2.90 or more

17%

Diesel does neither by Nov. 30 , 2009 (inclusive)

82%

Question suspends in 4 days

Activity: H$133,973
Predictions: 178
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Wed 25th Nov 7:59pm PST (4 days to go)

Initial likelihoods: Diesel drops to $2.75 or below: 33%, Diesel rises to $2.90 or more: 33%, Diesel does neither by Nov. 30 , 2009 (inclusive): 34%

Action history:

Created Sat 31st Oct 4:24am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

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