
What will be the Consumer Price Index change (Seasonally adjusted) in the USA for October, 2009?
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Background: On Oct 15th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose by 0.2% in September.
In 2008, the Consumer Price Index ranged from + 0.9 in June to -1.7 in November. Much of this movement is, of course, tied to the economy as a whole and to the price of oil, since energy costs impact on the cost of everything. So far this year, the numbers (seasonally adjusted) were as follows:
January: +0.3
February: +0.4
March: -0.1
April: 0.0 (unchanged)
May: +0.1
June: +0.7
July: 0.0 (unchanged)
Aug: +0.4
Sept: +0.2
How will the index change in October, 2009 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Preliminary, seasonally adjusted numbers as first reported will be used for settlement. Data are usually released by the middle of the following month.
In 2008, the Consumer Price Index ranged from + 0.9 in June to -1.7 in November. Much of this movement is, of course, tied to the economy as a whole and to the price of oil, since energy costs impact on the cost of everything. So far this year, the numbers (seasonally adjusted) were as follows:
January: +0.3
February: +0.4
March: -0.1
April: 0.0 (unchanged)
May: +0.1
June: +0.7
July: 0.0 (unchanged)
Aug: +0.4
Sept: +0.2
How will the index change in October, 2009 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Preliminary, seasonally adjusted numbers as first reported will be used for settlement. Data are usually released by the middle of the following month.
Settlement details:The official primary source is the Bureau of Labor Statistics @ http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm
| -1.5 or below |
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| -1.49 to -1.0 |
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| -0.99 to -0.50 |
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| -0.49 to unchanged |
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| +0.01 to + 0.5 |
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| +0.51 to +1.0 |
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| +1.01 to +1.5 |
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| +1.51 or above |
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Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended
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- Predictions: 8 |
Comments: 0
Suspend date: Wed 11th Nov 7:59pm PST
Initial likelihoods: -1.5 or below: 5%, -1.49 to -1.0: 10%, -0.99 to -0.50: 15%, -0.49 to unchanged: 20%, +0.01 to + 0.5: 20%, +0.51 to +1.0: 15%, +1.01 to +1.5: 10%, +1.51 or above: 5%
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Suspended Wed 11th Nov 7:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspend date: Wed 11th Nov 7:59pm PST details
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