Created Sat 31st Oct 10:38am PST by

How many of the 50 US states + DC will have double digit unemployment in November 2009?

Background: As of the September state-by-state totals, there were 14 states + DC = total of 15 with double digit unemployment, unchanged from August. The economy seems to be stabilizing, but consumer spending is anemic and housing and other sectors are still struggling.
Recent history:
April 2009: 8
May 2009: 14
June 2009:16
July 2009: 16
Aug 2009: 15
Sept 2009: 15
Can you predict how many states (+DC) will have 10% or more unemployment rate for November 2009? Settlement will be based on Local Area Unemployment Statistics released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics for the month of November: http://www.bls.gov/web/laumstrk.htm.

Settlement details:Settlement will be based on Local Area Unemployment Statistics released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/web/laumstrk.htm

Forecast history %

11 states or fewer

12 states

13 states

14 states

13%

15 states

17%

16 states

35%

17 states

11%

18 states

19 states or more

Question suspends in 2 weeks

Activity: H$3,361
Predictions: 16
Comments: 1

Suspend date: Tue 8th Dec 7:59pm PST (2 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 11 states or fewer : 5%, 12 states: 8%, 13 states: 12%, 14 states: 16%, 15 states: 18%, 16 states: 16%, 17 states: 12%, 18 states: 8%, 19 states or more: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 31st Oct 10:38am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Suspended Tue 10th Nov 7:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Changed Suspend date Sat 14th Nov 5:23am PST by