Created Sat 31st Oct 2009 5:01pm PST by

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,721,258)

What US state will have the most bank failures in November 2009?

Settled as Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, or Oregon

Congratulations Florida...you're the worst with three bank closings in November

Background:

Background: So far this year over 116 US banks across the country have failed and the FDIC has placed them into recievership (closed them down). At the start of the year the FDIC reported that nationally there were over 300 troubled banks. Now, the latest update places the number of banks that don't pass the grade is 416 (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSdMMGzkt1do). However, not all states are created equal when it comes to banking problems. Three states, Illinois, California and Georgia, represent over 45% of all bank failures in the US so far this year. I've set the odds accordingly, relative to who's had the most failures in the past, but will the trend continue?

Which state will have the most failures in the month of November 2009?

A good reference for more information on bank closures is here: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=102384657

Settlement details:http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
Question to be suspended at noon eastern time on Wednesday, November 25, 2009 (Because of a chance Thanksgiving changing when closures are announced) and can be settled after all the weekend bank closures are announced. Market includes all closures on the FDIC website November 1, 2009-November 30, 2009.

Forecast history %

Georgia

California

13%

Illinois

Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, or Oregon

55%

Any two or more states listed tie

22%

Other state, other outcome, no banks fail, etc.

Settled as Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, or Oregon on Sat 12th Dec 2009 5am PST

Activity: H$27,969
Predictions: 78
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Wed 25th Nov 2009 9am PST
Settlement date: Sat 12th Dec 2009 5am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 25th Nov 2009 9am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Georgia: 20%, California: 20%, Illinois: 20%, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, or Oregon: 10%, Any two or more states listed tie: 20%, Other state, other outcome, no banks fail, etc.: 10%

Action history:

Created Sat 31st Oct 2009 5:01pm PST by

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,721,258)

Suspended Wed 25th Nov 2009 9am PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Tue 1st Dec 2009 11:01pm PST by

mickeydaniel Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,391,452)

: Please settle as Florida, North Carolina, Nevada or Oregon. Florida had 3 closings. http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

Settlement requested Sat 5th Dec 2009 3:06am PST by

mickeydaniel Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,391,452)

: Settlement is now several days past due.

Settlement requested Mon 7th Dec 2009 2:40pm PST by

flamingo Level 11, Legend (H$18,099)

: According to www.fdic.gov, Florida had 3 banks closed in Nov 2009. In 2nd place was California with 2 banks closed in Nov 2009. Per terms of question and source, the answer is FLORIDA.

Settlement requested Tue 8th Dec 2009 4:54pm PST by

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$106,987)

: Settle as "Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, or Oregon"

Settled as 'Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, or Oregon' Sat 12th Dec 2009 5am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Congratulations Florida...you're the worst with three bank closings in November

hide

Get widget!

Predictions (78)

16 weeks ago

kansassoccerdad Level 9, Expert (H$9,279)

predicted Other state, other outcome, no banks fail, etc. (H$20 at 4%)

16 weeks ago

karmaapples Level 10, Genius (H$11,306)

predicted Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, or Oregon (H$20 at 67%)

16 weeks ago

flamingo Level 11, Legend (H$18,099)

predicted Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, or Oregon (H$500 at 72%)

16 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,721,258)

predicted Any two or more states listed tie (H$150 at 13%)

16 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,721,258)

predicted California (H$100 at 4%)

Comments (3)

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,721,258)

Feeling confident in the hometeam, are we cici? :-P

posted 20 weeks ago

cici

Froggy, if Florida doesn't win this one I'll be shocked. The way people are walking away from their houses and leaving them to the banks to worry about is amazing. The banks are losing several hundred of thousands per house. I'm with a Credit Union so I hope they can sustain the losses.

posted 20 weeks ago

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$106,987)

Yay, Florida! Three closings.

Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida Fort Myers FL 58016 November 20, 2009
Pacific Coast National Bank San Clemente CA 57914 November 13, 2009
Orion Bank Naples FL 22427 November 13, 2009
Century Bank, F.S.B. Sarasota FL 32267 November 13, 2009
United Commercial Bank San Francisco CA 32469 November 6, 2009
Gateway Bank of St. Louis St. Louis MO 19450 November 6, 2009
Prosperan Bank Oakdale MN 35074 November 6, 2009
Home Federal Savings Bank Detroit MI 30329 November 6, 2009
United Security Bank Sparta GA 22286 November 6, 2009

posted 14 weeks ago