Net worth: H$1,000

Guest:Cash: 1,000 Predictions: 0

Politics Sport Entertainment World Business Technology Science General

Created Sat 31st Oct 5:11pm PST by

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

How many US banks will fail in November 2009?

Background: November was a brutal month for bank closures. The FDIC currently has 416 banks nationally on their watch list. Will this be a record month for the year beating out July's 24 closures or is it going to be more typical for days of late with only 8-12 closures like much of the year?

This market is for the total closures in the entire month of November 2009..

A good reference for more information on bank closures is here: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=102384657

Settlement details:http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html Question to suspend November 25 in the early morning, settles based on FDIC numbers released by COB November 30, 2009.

Forecast history %

Zero to 10 banks fail

34%

11 to 17 banks fail

59%

18 to 23 banks fail

4%

24 to 29 banks fail (worst month of 2009)

2%

30 or more banks fail (Ouch!)

0%

Question suspends in 3 days

Activity: H$21,535
Predictions: 46
Comments: 2

Suspend date: Wed 25th Nov 2am PST (3 days to go)

Initial likelihoods: Zero to 10 banks fail : 20%, 11 to 17 banks fail : 35%, 18 to 23 banks fail : 25%, 24 to 29 banks fail (worst month of 2009): 15%, 30 or more banks fail (Ouch!): 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 31st Oct 5:11pm PST by

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

hide

Suspend date: Wed 25th Nov 2am PST (3 days to go) details

Post on Digg Delicious Reddit Facebook

Predictions (46)

4 hours ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

predicted Zero to 10 banks fail (H$100 at 12%)

4 hours ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

predicted 11 to 17 banks fail (H$500 at 45%)

9 hours ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

[Power User]

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,076,673)

predicted 11 to 17 banks fail (H$1,000 at 40%)

9 hours ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

[Power User]

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,076,673)

predicted Zero to 10 banks fail (H$600 at 10%)

9 hours ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

[Power User]

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,076,673)

predicted 11 to 17 banks fail (H$900 at 27%)

Comments (2)

1

Level 19, Uberdubber (H$3,034,426)

Hi frogchop great question. Wanted to create this one too after the last two weeks with the very high amount of crashing banks cost my 8K yesterday.

posted 2 weeks ago

2

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

I'd done this one or similar all summer, but just spaced making it in October.

posted 2 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

Stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real news stories! Win more if you're right and climb the leaderboards Learn more...

By joining you are agreeing to our terms of service

Related Tags

economy fdic bank failures bank closures

New in Business » Economics

Gallup Daily: Economic conditions. What % of Americans will say Excellent/good Dec 4, 2009?

Gallup Daily: Economic outlook. What % of Americans will say "getting better" on Dec 4, 2009?

Gallup Daily: Economic conditions. What % of Americans will say Excellent/good Nov 27, 2009?

More questions by

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

94% of previous questions settled successfully
34 settled, 2 voided

Will President Obama make a surprise trip to Afghanistan or Iraq during the holidays?

When will Congress pass a new banking regulations law?

Will the courts stop the state of Wisconsin from laying off/furloughing 1,100 engineers?