Created Mon 2nd Nov 5:28am PST by

How many grains of rice will be donated on Free Rice in November, 2009?

Background: Free Rice is a website that combines free education and food donation to help fight hunger throughout the world. Quoting form the website:
FreeRice has two goals:
1. Provide education to everyone for free.
2. Help end world hunger by providing rice to hungry people for free.
For some reason, the amount of rice generated on the website has dwindled a lot from last year. All charities are hurting due to the economic crisis, but this does not cost the donor a penny!
Last year, most months averaged well over 3,000,000,000 grains. This year is not as good:
January - 2,416,239,520
February - 1,663,509,530
March - 1,830,287,650
April - 1,478,963,720
May - 1,403,545,670
June - 929,906,500
July - 652,730,310
Aug - 787,320,460
Sept - 1,310,200,000
Oct - 1,611,699,490
This is a bit better last month, but still not up to last year's standards! Will the totals continue to improve?

The goal of this question, besides the fun of betting on Hubdub, is to see if we can bring more attention to Free Rice and more players who will donate more rice to combat poverty and hunger. So, bet high and then play your brains out to up the totals!!

The question is: What will be the total number of grains of rice donated in November 2009? The totals are displayed each day in the early morning hours under the Total tab. The settlement will be based on the total displayed in the Totals tab in early December, showing the totals for the month of November.

Settlement details:as shown on http://www.freerice.com/totals.php

Forecast history %

1,299,999,999 grains or less

1,300,000,000 to 1,399,999,999 grains

1,400,000,000 to 1,499,999,999 grains

66%

1,500,000,000 to 1,599,999,999 grains

23%

1,600,000,000 to 1,699,999,999 grains

1,700,000,000 to 1,799,999,999 grains

1,800,000,000 to 1,899,999,999 grains

1,900,000,000 to 1,999,999,999 grains

2,000,000,000 or more grains

Question suspends in 5 days

Activity: H$31,088
Predictions: 45
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Wed 25th Nov 7:59pm PST (5 days to go)

Initial likelihoods: 1,299,999,999 grains or less: 5%, 1,300,000,000 to 1,399,999,999 grains: 8%, 1,400,000,000 to 1,499,999,999 grains: 12%, 1,500,000,000 to 1,599,999,999 grains: 16%, 1,600,000,000 to 1,699,999,999 grains: 18%, 1,700,000,000 to 1,799,999,999 grains: 16%, 1,800,000,000 to 1,899,999,999 grains: 12%, 1,900,000,000 to 1,999,999,999 grains: 8%, 2,000,000,000 or more grains: 5%

Action history:

Created Mon 2nd Nov 5:28am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

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