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Created Mon 2nd Nov 9:34pm PST by steveb

From which political party will the next MP to leave the New Zealand Parliament come from?

Background: Since the last general election in November 2008, four MPs have resigned from parliament:

Helen Clark, Labour
Michael Cullen, Labour
Richard Worth, National
Sue Bradford, Green

From which party will the next MP to leave the New Zealand Parliament come from?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Question may only be settled if an MP leaves parliament. MPs defecting to other parties or becoming Independents do not count.

Initial probabilities are based on the proportion of seats each party holds in parliament.

 
Forecast history %
National
71%
Labour
16%
Green
3%
ACT
2%
Maori
6%
United Future
0%
Progressives
0%
Other/No MPs leave parliament
1%
Question suspends in 2 years

Suspend date: Tue 22nd Nov 2011 3:59am PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: National: 47%, Labour: 34%, Green: 7%, ACT: 4%, Maori: 4%, United Future: 1%, Progressives: 1%, Other/No MPs leave parliament: 2%

Action history:

Created Mon 2nd Nov 9:34pm PST by steveb

Suspend date: Tue 22nd Nov 2011 3:59am PST (2 years to go) details

 

Predictions (5)

1 day ago
cookietime predicted Maori (H$100 at 5%)
1 week ago
steveb predicted Maori (H$500 at 8%)
2 weeks ago
steveb predicted Maori (H$100 at 3%)
2 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted National (H$3,333 at 62%)
2 weeks ago
steveb predicted National (H$200 at 48%)

Comments (1)

  1 cookietime
Surely it will be Hone Hariwera (Maori), prolly not b/c of this latest blunder but more than likely his next one or the one after that.
posted 1 day ago

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