Created Tue 3rd Nov 1:06pm PST by

Will "Paranormal Activity" earn at least $99,4m after 45 days?

Settled as No

Background: Six questions this week. Box office performance. #2 last weekend

I will add all movies with a 20m+ first weekend and will stop the weekly questions when there is little acticity or the movie falls below 3m a week.

The value 99,4 consists of:
Up to this weekend: 84,6
Monday-Thursday: 4,1 (my estimate modell)
Next weekend: 10,7 (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/derbygame/)

I don´t want to change to 51% to 49% and similar in starting odds - therefore I use one digit more in box office numbers.

my original information:

PARANORMAL ACTIVITY
Distributor: Paramount
Genre: Horror
Theaters: 1945

Settlement details:As reported by http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=paranormalactivity.htm with the final weekend numbers on Monday, November 9nd .

Forecast history %

Yes

44%

56%

Settled as No on Mon 9th Nov 4:05pm PST

Activity: H$28,404
Predictions: 14
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Sat 7th Nov 3:05am PST
Settlement date: Mon 9th Nov 4:05pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 7th Nov 3:05am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Tue 3rd Nov 1:06pm PST by

hfl13

Suspended Sat 7th Nov 3:05am PST : Suspend date reached

Settled as 'No' Mon 9th Nov 4:05pm PST by