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Who will win the next election for the German Bundestag?

Background: The next German Bundestag will elected in 2013.
The last date this has to happen is the 27th november.

Settlement details:as reprted by http://www.spiegel.de/international/

 
Forecast history %
CDU/CSU-FDP
34%
SPD-Greens
13%
CDU/CSU-SPD
15%
CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens
2%
SPD-FDP-Greens
14%
SPD-The Lefft
2%
SPD-Greens-The Left
17%
other
2%
Question suspends in 3 years

Suspend date: Wed 27th Nov 2013 7pm PST (3 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: CDU/CSU-FDP: 40%, SPD-Greens: 25%, CDU/CSU-SPD: 20%, CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens: 4%, SPD-FDP-Greens: 3%, SPD-The Lefft: 5%, SPD-Greens-The Left: 2%, other: 1%

Action history:

Created Wed 4th Nov 2009 2:53am PST by syzslack

Suspend date: Wed 27th Nov 2013 7pm PST (3 years to go) details

 

Predictions (8)

9 weeks ago
neopugg predicted SPD-Greens-The Left (H$300 at 14%)
17 weeks ago
joffi predicted SPD-Greens-The Left (H$70 at 13%)
18 weeks ago
jank predicted SPD-Greens (H$100 at 13%)
19 weeks ago
hfl13 predicted CDU/CSU-SPD (H$333 at 14%)
19 weeks ago
syzslack predicted CDU/CSU-FDP (H$1,000 at 33%)

Comments (3)

  1 hfl13
CDU/CSU-SPD equals SPD-CDU/CSU? Or is this other?
posted 19 weeks ago
  2 bernardo
If this would be "other", all the other possible variations would have to be considered, too.
posted 19 weeks ago
  3 syzslack
it equals each other!
posted 19 weeks ago

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