Dow - Up or down ? Which comes first, 9500 or 10,500?

Background: Closing price counts not intraday trading.
Category editor may suspend 1 hour before market close if close to settlement.

At close of trading Thu 31 December
Suspends Wednesday 25 December

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Dow closes above 10,500 first

92%

Dow closes below 9,500 first

Dow does neither before 31 December 09

Question suspends in 4 weeks

Activity: H$246,138
Predictions: 664
Comments: 2

Suspend date: Fri 25th Dec 5am PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Dow closes above 10,500 first : 34%, Dow closes below 9,500 first: 33%, Dow does neither before 31 December 09: 33%

Action history:

Created Thu 5th Nov 7:36pm PST by

gonegonegone Level 15, Seer (H$309,091)

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Suspend date: Fri 25th Dec 5am PST (4 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (664)

1 hour ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,674,635)

predicted Dow does neither before 31 December 09 (H$100 at 11%)

5 hours ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$449,851)

predicted Dow closes below 9,500 first (H$400 at 4%)

8 hours ago

anderzen Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,263)

predicted Dow closes below 9,500 first (H$100 at 12%)

8 hours ago

anderzen Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,263)

predicted Dow closes below 9,500 first (H$100 at 10%)

8 hours ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$449,851)

predicted Dow closes below 9,500 first (H$400 at 5%)

Comments (2)

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,674,635)

It probably will hit 10.5k first and I'm just throwing good money after bad, but how many folks really believe that this is anything but yet another bubble? The entire bull run is based on rising commmodity prices (primarily energy and metals) with only a fraction based on retail numbers (the real foundation for a recovery). With unemployment at 10.2% and rising, the dollar losing 16% in the last few months relative to most major currencies, and the deficit running over 10%, how on earth could this be sustainable?

I don't know what the trigger will be that brings the market back down to reality, but the current growth sure isn't grounded in positive corporate earnings that are here to stay.

posted 4 days ago