Created Thu 5th Nov 2009 7:35pm PST by

gonegonegone Level 15, Seer (H$473,678)

Dow - Up or down ? Which comes first, 9500 or 10,500?

Settled as Dow closes above 10,500 first

DJIA closed at 10501.05 on Monday, December 14, having gained 29.55 points for the day

Now, onto 11,000, right?

Background:

Background: Closing price counts not intraday trading.
Category editor may suspend 1 hour before market close if close to settlement.

At close of trading Thu 31 December
Suspends Wednesday 25 December

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Dow closes above 10,500 first

90%

Dow closes below 9,500 first

Dow does neither before 31 December 09

Settled as Dow closes above 10,500 first on Mon 14th Dec 2009 2:32pm PST

Activity: H$582,125
Predictions: 1403
Comments: 6

Suspend date: Mon 14th Dec 2009 12:45pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 14th Dec 2009 2:32pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 14th Dec 2009 12:45pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Dow closes above 10,500 first : 34%, Dow closes below 9,500 first: 33%, Dow does neither before 31 December 09: 33%

Action history:

Created Thu 5th Nov 2009 7:36pm PST by

gonegonegone Level 15, Seer (H$473,678)

Changed Suspend date Mon 14th Dec 2009 11:48am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: was: "2009-12-25 05:00:00"

Suspended Mon 14th Dec 2009 12:45pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Mon 14th Dec 2009 1:28pm PST by

randburg Level 20, Hubdub God (H$5,854,622)

: YES!! Dow closes at 10,501.20!!

Settled as 'Dow closes above 10,500 first ' Mon 14th Dec 2009 2:32pm PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: DJIA closed at 10501.05 on Monday, December 14, having gained 29.55 points for the day

Now, onto 11,000, right?

hide

Get widget!

Predictions (1403)

12 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 14, Prophet (H$207,452)

predicted Dow does neither before 31 December 09 (H$400 at 9%)

12 weeks ago

math

predicted Dow does neither before 31 December 09 (H$50 at 7%)

12 weeks ago

thepeoplegeekllc Level 13, Psychic (H$95,682)

predicted Dow closes above 10,500 first (H$1,500 at 91%)

12 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Dow does neither before 31 December 09 (H$200 at 10%)

12 weeks ago

kentuckywildcat Level 15, Seer (H$268,889)

predicted Dow does neither before 31 December 09 (H$150 at 5%)

Comments (6)

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,730,023)

It probably will hit 10.5k first and I'm just throwing good money after bad, but how many folks really believe that this is anything but yet another bubble? The entire bull run is based on rising commmodity prices (primarily energy and metals) with only a fraction based on retail numbers (the real foundation for a recovery). With unemployment at 10.2% and rising, the dollar losing 16% in the last few months relative to most major currencies, and the deficit running over 10%, how on earth could this be sustainable?

I don't know what the trigger will be that brings the market back down to reality, but the current growth sure isn't grounded in positive corporate earnings that are here to stay.

posted 16 weeks ago

hoernla Level 13, Psychic (H$79,744)

You are absolutely right. But the bubble won't burst this year. :-)

posted 16 weeks ago

joe_boyd Level 5, Predictor (H$1,404)

It keeps going up, not because the value of the companies are going up, but because the American dollar is becoming worth less. This is happening due to increased amount of currency created by the bailouts. As the American dollar continues to decline in value, the value of the companies will become worth more of those dollars.

posted 15 weeks ago

gonegonegone Level 15, Seer (H$473,678)

Two sessions in a row where going over 10,500 has sparked an immediate dramatic pull-back. Seems to be a lot of trading programs with "sell at 10,500" programmed into them. My bones tell me the bear could be stirring from hibernation with a taste for beef.

posted 14 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

Looks like we might really be close to this today...so, just in case, we're suspending this one temporarily about 15 minutes prior to the close of the market for today. If it doesn't make it to 10500, then we'll reopened it shortly after the end of trading.

posted 12 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

MADE IT ...10501

posted 12 weeks ago