Created Sat 7th Nov 5:15pm PST by

How many Hubdubbers will become Oracles (have H$ 500,000 or more) by Jan 1, 2010?

Background: As I write this, HubDub has 150 Prophets = players with with >H$ 100,000, 78 Seers - players with >250,000 and 42 Oracles with H$ 500,000 or more. Ten players are within striking distance with at least H$ 400,000. How many players will reach H$ 500,000 or more by Jan 1, 2010? Remember that you can lose as well as gain points in this game! The question will suspend 1 week before, on Dec 24, 2009.

Settlement details:As per All Time Net Worth Leader Board on Dec 31, 2009; the most recent observation before midnight EST will count
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=3

Forecast history %

38 or less - going backwards

39 to 41

42 to 44

19%

45 to 47

46%

48 to 50

15%

51 to 53

54 to 56

57or more

Question suspends in 4 weeks

Activity: H$6,527
Predictions: 12
Comments: 1

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 9am PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 38 or less - going backwards: 5%, 39 to 41: 10%, 42 to 44: 15%, 45 to 47: 20%, 48 to 50: 20%, 51 to 53: 15%, 54 to 56: 10%, 57or more: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 7th Nov 5:15pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

hide