Created Sat 7th Nov 5:26pm PST by

How many hubdubbers will become Seers by January 1, 2010?

Background: This was fun last couple of months, so let's do it again for another two months. As I write this, there are:
78 Seers with at least H$ 250,000
150 Prophets with at least H$ 100,000
243 Psychics with at least H$ 50,000
399 Gurus with at least H$ 25,000
How many players will reach Seer status or greater (>H$250,000) just before midnight EST on December 31, 2009? The question will suspend 1 week before, on Dec 25.

Settlement details:As per All Time Net Worth Leader Board on Dec 31, 2009 just before midnight EST http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=4

Forecast history %

75 or less - going backwards

76 to 78

79 to 81

20%

82 to 84

35%

85 to 87

29%

88 to 90

91 to 93

94 or more - HD rocks!

Question suspends in 4 weeks

Activity: H$7,251
Predictions: 20
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Fri 25th Dec 7pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 75 or less - going backwards: 5%, 76 to 78: 10%, 79 to 81: 15%, 82 to 84: 20%, 85 to 87: 20%, 88 to 90: 15%, 91 to 93: 10%, 94 or more - HD rocks!: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 7th Nov 5:26pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

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