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How many hubdubbers will become Seers by January 1, 2010?

Settled as 79 to 81

there were only 80 Seers
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=4

Background:

Background: This was fun last couple of months, so let's do it again for another two months. As I write this, there are:
78 Seers with at least H$ 250,000
150 Prophets with at least H$ 100,000
243 Psychics with at least H$ 50,000
399 Gurus with at least H$ 25,000
How many players will reach Seer status or greater (>H$250,000) just before midnight EST on December 31, 2009? The question will suspend 1 week before, on Dec 25.

Settlement details:As per All Time Net Worth Leader Board on Dec 31, 2009 just before midnight EST http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=4

 
Forecast history %
75 or less - going backwards
0%
76 to 78
1%
79 to 81
40%
82 to 84
54%
85 to 87
3%
88 to 90
1%
91 to 93
1%
94 or more - HD rocks!
0%
Settled as 79 to 81 on Fri 1st Jan 2:40am PST

Suspend date: Fri 25th Dec 2009 7pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 2:40am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 25th Dec 2009 7pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 75 or less - going backwards: 5%, 76 to 78: 10%, 79 to 81: 15%, 82 to 84: 20%, 85 to 87: 20%, 88 to 90: 15%, 91 to 93: 10%, 94 or more - HD rocks!: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 7th Nov 2009 5:26pm PST by tuff_sledding[Power User]
Suspended Fri 25th Dec 2009 7pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 31st Dec 2009 9:53pm PST by tuff_sledding[Power User]: there were only 80 Seers
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=4
Settled as '79 to 81' Fri 1st Jan 2:40am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: there were only 80 Seers
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=4

Suspend date: Fri 25th Dec 2009 7pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 2:40am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 25th Dec 2009 7pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (54)

10 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 82 to 84 (H$1,000 at 41%)
11 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 79 to 81 (H$2,000 at 42%)
11 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted 79 to 81 (H$1,000 at 23%)
11 weeks ago
pitchedoutsideleg[Power User] predicted 82 to 84 (H$3,000 at 49%)
11 weeks ago
pitchedoutsideleg[Power User] predicted 85 to 87 (H$1,000 at 22%)

Comments (5)

  1 hfl13
79 (+1)
posted 16 weeks ago
80 (+1)
posted 15 weeks ago
81
posted 15 weeks ago
Dec. 9: 82
posted 13 weeks ago
  5 hfl13
80 (+2) numbers in brackets are in relation to the background = time of question creation
posted 11 weeks ago

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