Created Sat 7th Nov 5:37pm PST by

How many Prophets among us by January 1, 2010?

Background: This was fun last couple of months, so let's do it again, for another 2 months. As I write this, there are:
78 Seers with at least H$ 250,000
150 Prophets with at least H$ 100,000
242 Psychics with at least H$ 50,000
396 Gurus with at least H$ 25,000
550 Legends with at least H$ 15,000
How many players will reach Prophet status or higher (>H$100,000) just before midnight EST on December 31, 2009? Remember that you can lose as well as gain points in this game! The question will suspend 1 week before, on Dec 25.

Settlement details:As per All Time Net Worth Leader Board on Dec 31, 2009 just before midnight EST http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=8

Forecast history %

140 or less - going backwards

141 to 145

146 to 150

151 to 155

17%

156 to 160

40%

161 to 165

18%

166 to 170

171 or more - HD rocks!

Question suspends in 5 weeks

Activity: H$2,933
Predictions: 9
Comments: 1

Suspend date: Fri 25th Dec 7pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 140 or less - going backwards: 5%, 141 to 145: 10%, 146 to 150: 15%, 151 to 155: 20%, 156 to 160: 20%, 161 to 165: 15%, 166 to 170: 10%, 171 or more - HD rocks!: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 7th Nov 5:37pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

hide