Created Sat 7th Nov 6:04pm PST by

How many among us will become Legend by January 1, 2010?

Background: This was fun last couple of months, so let's do it again for another two months. As I write this, there are:
396 Gurus with at least H$ 25,000
550 Legends with at least H$ 15,000
728 Geniuses with at least H$ 10,000
885 Experts with at least H$ 7,500
How many players will reach Legend status or higher (>H$15,000) just before midnight EST on Dec 31, 2009? Remember that you can lose as well as gain points in this game! The question will suspend 1 week before, on Dec 25.

Settlement details:As per All Time Net Worth Leader Board just before midnight EST on Dec 31, 2009 http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=45

Forecast history %

540 or less - going backwards

541 to 550

551 to 560

561 to 570

29%

571 to 580

34%

581 to 590

591 to 600

16%

601 to 610

611 or more - HD rocks!

Question suspends in 5 weeks

Activity: H$6,220
Predictions: 13
Comments: 1

Suspend date: Fri 25th Dec 7pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 540 or less - going backwards: 5%, 541 to 550: 8%, 551 to 560: 12%, 561 to 570: 16%, 571 to 580: 18%, 581 to 590: 16%, 591 to 600: 12%, 601 to 610: 8%, 611 or more - HD rocks!: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 7th Nov 6:04pm PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

hide