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Will there be another Israel-Lebanon War?

Background: Israel and Lebanon have been fighting for one reason or another since 1978. The latest round of war was in 2006, when Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Lebanese militia, attacked and kidnapped Israeli soliders. Thiswas followed by a month-long full-scale war between Israel and the Hezbollah, which ended in a cease-fire agreement.
Since that war ended, the Israel-Lebanon front has been quiet, perhaps the quietest it has been in decades. However, according to many the war did not end decisively, and both sides are actively preparing for the next round of war. Just this week the Israeli army captured a supply ship carrying a massive shipment of arms from Iran to the Hezbollah.
Will another round of war between Lebanon and Israel ensue before the settlement date?

Settlement details:Any large-scale fighting involving Israeli and Lebanese will settle as "yes", regardless of their political affiliation (e.g, Lebanese Army, Hezbollah, etc., all count as Lebanese). If a larger war (e.g., with Iran) involves large-scale fighting between Israeli and Lebanese on Lebanese soil, this question can also settle as "yes".
Isolated incidents such as rocket fire, small military excursions, kidnappings, assasinations, and so on, will not settle this question; Only sustained, large-scale fighting, which the public or the media have begun calling a "war" - will cause settling as "yes".
This question does not require a formal "declaration or war" by either side.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
20%
No
80%
Question suspends in 44 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 30th Sep 2010 2pm PST (44 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Sat 7th Nov 11:18pm PST by nyharel

Suspend date: Thu 30th Sep 2010 2pm PST (44 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (12)

1 week ago
nyharel predicted Yes (H$20 at 19%)
1 week ago
tkui predicted Yes (H$15 at 33%)
1 week ago
nyharel predicted No (H$100 at 67%)
1 week ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted No (H$500 at 66%)
1 week ago
tkui predicted Yes (H$100 at 25%)

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