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Which will be higher on February 1, 2010, the S&P 500 index or an ounce of gold?

Background: Both the price of gold and the U.S. stock markets have been on an uptrend lately. The government’s recent statements that we are starting to move out of our recession coupled with the decreasing trend in the value of the U.S. dollar and increasing global demand for gold, make it likely these markets will remain volatile in the near future.

Which will close highest on February 1, 2010, an ounce of gold or the S&P 500 index? The settlement for this question will be based on that day’s closing prices, not on intraday pricing.

This market will close following the end of trading on the Friday prior.

Gold closed on November 7th at $1,095.10.
You can find current gold pricing at this site: http://www.kitco.com/market

The S&P 500 index closed on August 21st at $1,069.30.
You can find current index pricing at this site: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/movers_index_spx.html

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
The S&P 500 index is worth more
47%
An ounce of gold is worth more
53%
Question suspends in 9 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 29th Jan 2010 6pm PST (9 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: The S&P 500 index is worth more: 45%, An ounce of gold is worth more: 55%

Action history:

Created Sun 8th Nov 12:26am PST by mickeydaniel

Suspend date: Fri 29th Jan 2010 6pm PST (9 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (3)

17 hours ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted The S&P 500 index is worth more (H$200 at 46%)
5 days ago
roofrabbit predicted An ounce of gold is worth more (H$50 at 58%)
1 week ago
coolkraft predicted An ounce of gold is worth more (H$300 at 56%)

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