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Which will be higher on March 1, 2010, the S&P 500 index or an ounce of gold?

Background: Both the price of gold and the U.S. stock markets have been on an uptrend lately. The government’s recent statements that we are starting to move out of our recession coupled with the decreasing trend in the value of the U.S. dollar and increasing global demand for gold, make it likely these markets will remain volatile in the near future.

Which will close highest on March 1, 2010, an ounce of gold or the S&P 500 index? The settlement for this question will be based on that day’s closing prices, not on intraday pricing.

This market will close following the end of trading on the Friday prior.

Gold closed on November 7th at $1,095.10.
You can find current gold pricing at this site: http://www.kitco.com/market

The S&P 500 index closed on November 7th at $1,069.30.
You can find current index pricing at this site: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/movers_index_spx.html

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
The S&P 500 index is worth more
31%
An ounce of gold is worth more
69%
Question suspends in 13 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 26th Feb 2010 6pm PST (13 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: The S&P 500 index is worth more: 50%, An ounce of gold is worth more: 50%

Action history:

Created Sun 8th Nov 12:55am PST by mickeydaniel

Suspend date: Fri 26th Feb 2010 6pm PST (13 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (3)

15 hours ago
rogerkni predicted An ounce of gold is worth more (H$1,000 at 66%)
6 days ago
rogerkni predicted An ounce of gold is worth more (H$1,500 at 59%)
1 week ago
coolkraft predicted An ounce of gold is worth more (H$300 at 51%)

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